Die Zeit1 hour agoWorld2 min readGermany

Ethiopian government troops retake Mek'ele, TPLF announces guerrilla tactics

Quick Look

Ethiopian government troops have recaptured the provincial capital Mek'ele in the Tigray region after TPLF fighters largely abandoned the city.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael announced a transition to guerrilla tactics and described the war as a regional battle for control of the Red Sea.
Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea and Egypt have been severely strained due to allegations of TPLF support, with Ethiopia and Eritrea having severed diplomatic relations.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Since 2020, TPLF fighters and the Ethiopian central government have waged a civil war that ended with a ceasefire in late 2022. However, the TPLF no longer recognizes the agreement. It was the government in Ethiopia for almost 30 years. Their political preeminence ended when Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018.

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In Ethiopia, government troops have retaken the provincial capital of Mek'ele in the Tigray region. Government troops and allied forces were observed in several locations in Mek'ele, humanitarian aid sources told the AFP news agency. Fighters and leaders of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had previously largely left the city.

Already in the morning, a local journalist had reported to AFP that TPLF fighters and leaders were leaving Mek'ele in view of the advance of government troops. Government buildings and police stations were left without security personnel. Residents expressed concern about looting and lawlessness.

Due to extensive disruptions to telecommunications networks in Tigray, information from Mek'ele was difficult to verify. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's office did not immediately comment. The Reuters news agency also reported on the recapture by government troops.

TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael announced a transition to guerrilla tactics. "Our strategy is to hit the enemy where we want," he said in a video message. The war is “regional” and a war “for control of the Red Sea.” Government troops had already taken Mek'ele in 2020. The TPLF retreated to the mountains at that time, began a guerrilla struggle and recaptured the city in mid-2021.

Civil war ended with a ceasefire in 2022

Fighting in northern Ethiopia flared up again last week. TPLF fighters had begun a major offensive against the military and soon reported the capture of three airports in the region. Ethiopian government troops and allied groups quickly launched counterattacks. On Friday, pro-government militias said they had taken control of Mek'ele airport.

The new escalation has also severely strained Ethiopia's relations with several neighboring countries. Ethiopian Prime Minister Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea and Egypt of supporting the TPLF. Ethiopia and Eritrea broke off diplomatic relations on Thursday.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

The TPLF will continue its guerrilla tactics in the Tigray mountains and attempt to overwhelm government forces.
Likely · Within months
Diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea will not be restored for the time being.
Very likely · Within months

Open Questions

How strong is the current TPLF guerrilla movement in the Tigray mountains?
What specific steps does the Ethiopian government plan to take to consolidate its control over Mek’ele?
How will humanitarian aid deliveries be organized in Tigray given the telecommunications disruptions?
What evidence does Ethiopia have to support the allegations against Eritrea and Egypt regarding TPLF support?