As Australian bushfires become more frequent and intense, satellite data has become a critical tool for bushfire planning and response.
But with no Earth-observation satellites, the nation depends on foreign-owned satellites for information during emergencies.
Scientists at the Australian National University are developing what could be Australia's first national satellite mission for Earth observation, with world-first technology to monitor the flammability of eucalypt forests from space.
The OzFuel project has been proven in the lab and now needs investment for a preliminary or "pathfinder" mission to test and prove it works ahead of a more expensive program.
Scanning eucalypt forests from space
Eucalypt forests are among the most flammable in the world, responsible for devastating wildfires both in Australia and overseas.
Predicting where these fires are most likely to start and how they may propagate comes down to the complex biochemistry in the eucalypt leaves.
"There is no single variable that determines how flammable a eucalypt is," said Marta Yebra, director of the ANU Bushfire Research Centre of Excellence and leader of the OzFuel project.
"One of the properties is moisture content, but there are other chemical components like oil content, cellulose and lignin," Professor Yebra said. "These all make the leaves more flammable."
These traits can be measured from space with remote sensors tuned to specific bands of the infrared spectrum.
ANU researchers have analysed thousands of eucalypt leaf samples to determine which wavelengths in the infrared spectrum can detect key chemical compounds and other flammability traits.
Initial experiments in collaboration with CSIRO have investigated how these traits influence fire behaviour.
At the Mount Stromlo research facility in Canberra, the same instruments used by astronomers to observe distant planets have been adapted to make Earth observations from space.
Rob Sharp is director of the ANU's Advanced Instrumentation Technology Centre. His team has built a high-powered infrared telescope small enough to fit onto a satellite for the OzFuel project.
"We've demonstrated that we can make the concept work in the laboratory," he said.
"We're now at the stage from a technical perspective where we're looking to test it for viability on a spacecraft, and then attach it to a small satellite and get the prototype up in orbit."
But until the technology is proven in space with a pathfinder mission, it is difficult to attract investment from the commercial sector.
It is a stage Professor Sharp calls the "technology Valley of Death".
Crossing the 'Valley of Death'
ANU Institute for Space director Anna Moore estimated the OzFuel pathfinder mission, which could be ready to launch in 18 months, would cost around $15 million.
But for now, the project is on hold.
Professor Moore said the lack of established funding pathways to progress from technology development and ground-based validations to demonstration and then out into industry puts projects like OzFuel at risk.
"You want that funding pipeline to be seamless," she said.
"When a project like this is on hold, you not only lose key staff who hold the intellectual property that makes this a reality in the first place, you also lose momentum.
"And then lastly, we're talking here about bushfires. And the more we wait, the more bushfires we're going to have."
Reliance on others a national security issue
Australia's dependence on foreign-owned satellite data in natural disasters was highlighted in the royal commission that followed the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires.
In March 2022, the Australian government announced a $1.16 million plan to build four Earth-observation satellites as part of the National Space Mission for Earth Observation.
That program was axed as part of budget cuts a year later.
"Earth observation data are a critical piece of Australia's national security infrastructure for disaster preparedness and response," said Stuart Phinn, from the University of Queensland's School of the Environment.
Professor Phinn said that it had never been a better time to build Australia's national satellite capability.
"If we don't act on this now, we're gradually going to lose that capability, and we're going to have to spend a lot more money buying in data and having potentially unreliable data and data that's not fit for Australian environments or Australian applications."
In July this year, the Australian government released its Statement on Space. It listed trusted space services, including Earth observation, as a key priority area, noting the increasing role of these services in supporting public safety and security during emergencies.
In response to questions from the ABC, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources said the Australian government was working to secure access to critical satellite data by investing in relationships with strategic partnerships with the United States, the European Union and Japan.
This included a $448.7 million investment over 11 years to ensure access to data from the United States Landsat Next satellite mission.
It did not comment on whether there was any plan to build our national satellite Earth observation capability.
As Australia braces for an El Niño summer and the cost of natural disasters continues to escalate, Professor Yebra said investing in prevention had a multiplier effect.
"There are lots of studies that broadly [indicate] that in natural disasters, $1 invested in prevention results in $10 of benefits in the damage that is avoided," she said.
"Over the next 30 years, we could save more than $8.5 billion if we have more investment in technologies that can provide information that is useful to plan rather than react to bushfires."
