Europe enters winter with lowest gas stocks in 13 years

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Gas Supply Security Assessment, published today, examined how structural changes over the last 10 years have reshaped global gas markets and helped importing countries in some regions to recover from the post-war supply shock in the Middle East.

Accordingly, since 2016, when this report was first published, the global gas market has undergone a significant transformation by becoming more flexible, liquid and integrated, while also taking on a more complex structure.

The proliferation of spot market transactions and the increasing share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts where the delivery point can be changed have strengthened the integration between regional markets and increased resilience to supply disruptions.

Despite this, the virtual halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz has increased natural gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the gas supply crisis in 2022-2023. The interruption in the flow of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz caused LNG shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to decrease by more than 60 billion cubic meters in the March-October period.

Dependency on LNG supply will increase

Total global LNG supply is predicted to decrease by approximately 3 percent (20 billion cubic meters) this year.

Global natural gas demand is expected to decrease by 1.5 percent (65 billion cubic meters). It is estimated that this decline will be affected by the contraction in the Middle East due to insufficient demand, the decrease in industrial gas consumption in Europe, and the transition from natural gas to coal in electricity generation in many countries in Asia.

While risks to global natural gas supply security continue, gas storage facilities in the EU are entering the 2026-2027 winter period with the lowest stock levels recorded since 2013. The occupancy rate in gas tanks in the EU is currently at 74.6 percent.

It is predicted that this situation will further increase the region's dependence on global LNG supply to meet its needs during periods when seasonal demand peaks. If the winter period is colder than expected, technical failures occur or other supply disruptions occur, Europe may remain in a particularly vulnerable position against these developments.

IEA's simulations indicate that if weather conditions remain colder than seasonal norms and the interruption in the LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the amount of gas in natural gas storages in the EU may fall below 10 percent of the available storage capacity by the end of March 2027.

When the occupancy rate in the tanks drops below 30 percent of the available capacity, the rate of gas withdrawal from the tanks generally tends to decrease.

Low natural gas stocks in Europe, combined with the limited storage facilities of LNG importing countries in Asia and South America, may intensify competition for the limited number of flexible LNG cargoes in the coming months and put upward pressure on spot prices, especially during periods of high demand.

Low storage levels pose the risk of significantly increasing the need to re-inject gas into storage through the summer of 2027, causing the supply squeeze in the market to extend into the following year.