Opinion poll reveals that Shen Boyang is approaching the city with troops! Zhan Lingyu: Jiang Wanan’s good days are over

TVBS released the latest Taipei mayoral election poll yesterday (8th). The gap between the current mayor Chiang Wanan, who is seeking re-election, and the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang is only single digits, triggering heated discussions among the outside world. Media person Zhan Lingyu published an article analyzing the key reasons for the narrowing of the gap, and bluntly said, "Shen Boyang has also arrived. The good days of Taipei Mayor and Jiang Wanan are really over."

TVBS released the latest poll on the 8th, with support for Jiang Wanan at 49% and Shen Boyang at 41%. Shen Boyang originally trailed Jiang Wanan by nearly 30 percentage points, but now he is only in single digits. This poll also pointed out that the support for Shen Boyang among voters aged 20-29 rose from 37% in May to 52%, surpassing Jiang Wanan's 44%; and among voters who voted for Huang Shanshan in the last term, the proportion of voters who switched to Shen Boyang rose to 53%, higher than Jiang Wanan's 39%.

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This poll was conducted by the TVBS Public Opinion Survey Center on October 3, 2015, and from 18:30 to 22:00 in the evenings of October 5 to 7. A total of 1,284 Taipei citizens over the age of 20 were contacted. Among them, 164 refused to be interviewed, with a refusal rate of 12.8%. In the end, 1,120 valid samples were interviewed. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error was within ±2.9 percentage points. The sampling method adopts random sampling with the last four digits of local telephone numbers and telephone interviews. All data are statistically weighted according to maternal gender, age, region, education level and other variables. The source of funding for the investigation is TVBS.

Zhan Lingyu posted on Facebook that 49% versus 41%! The latest TVBS Taipei mayoral poll is out, with Jiang Wanan leading Shen Boyang by only 8 percentage points. Zhan Zhi said, everyone should not forget that TVBS is a blue-leaning organization and has always had the organizational effect of a higher rate of blue team representation. At the end of May this year, Jiang Wanan beat Shen Boyang by a full 28 percentage points, 58% to 30%. As a result, in just 4 months, the gap was directly cut by 20%, and it was a single-digit hand-to-hand battle! Even the numbers produced by the blue media cannot be suppressed. This Taipei election campaign has really changed.

Zhan Lingyu analyzed that the key to this "ocean current" burning so fiercely was that Shen Boyang broke out of the stratosphere directly. Not only did he thoroughly discuss Taipei's municipal blueprint, he even dared to enter the live broadcast room of famous celebrities in the deep blue to enter the direct match, showing his confidence in answering all questions.

On the other hand, Jiang Wanan always avoids the important points when encountering difficult controversies, and is criticized by the outside world as "Ask A and Answer B". In addition to the recent shortage of nutritious lunch packages and frequent reports of flooding and rat infestations, the mayor's satisfaction has dropped all the way to 52%, and his dissatisfaction has soared to 35%, and the municipal burden has been fully detonated.

Zhan Lingyu emphasized that numbers cannot deceive people. The gap between the median voters collapsed from 43% to only 4%. The votes of young people aged 20 to 29 were overtaken by Shen Boyang with 52%. Even in the last term, more than half (53%) of the votes cast for Huang Shanshan went directly to Shen Boyang!

Zhan Lingyu bluntly said that when voters in the middle and young people no longer pay for Chiang Wanan’s empty packaging, even in the pan-blue home polls, Shen Boyang has already entered the city. In the Taipei mayor’s turn, Chiang Wanan’s good days are really over.