US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to refrain from targeting energy facilities, the day after he criticized the strikes carried out by Kiev against Moscow's oil facilities.
Trump said, in a post on his platform, Truth Social: “Ukraine has agreed not to bomb Russian energy targets. Russia agreed to do the same! It is most likely that the (rise) in the price of diesel in the world is caused by the Ukrainian-Russian war, and not the Iran (war) launched by Washington and Israel on February 28, 2026.
The war in the Middle East caused a sharp rise in the prices of oil and energy resources globally. Which led to an increase in fuel prices and inflation rates in the United States, before the midterm elections scheduled for next November.
The Polish army announced, on Monday, the recovery of a combat drone from the Baltic Sea near the coast, according to what was reported by the German News Agency.
“Preliminary assessments indicate that this is a Russian-made military drone,” Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamisz wrote on the “X” platform.
The drone was found near the coastal resort of Rosynovo in northwestern Poland.
A spokesman for the Polish Army Command told TVN24 that it was most likely a Gerbera drone.
Since the air defense has not recorded any airspace violations since July 30, it is possible that the drone washed ashore coming from international waters.
Experts are currently checking whether it contains explosives.
Russia often uses unarmed drones as decoy objects in air strikes against Ukraine to distract air defense systems.
Poland, a member of the European Union and NATO, is a major political and military ally of Ukraine, which is under attack from Russia, and also considers itself vulnerable to threat from Moscow.
On Sunday, a train heading from Kiev to Warsaw was attacked by a Russian drone just before it reached the Polish border.
A Russian strike that targeted a passenger train near the Ukrainian border with Poland on Sunday revived fears that the repercussions of the war are getting closer to NATO territory, at a time when European countries are facing a series of drones, sabotage operations, and electronic attacks, of which Moscow is accused of being behind a number of them.
A Russian drone hit a passenger train locomotive in the Jahudin area, about two kilometers from the Polish border, shortly after a train carrying Western figures passed, including former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was British Prime Minister when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski described the attack as an escalation, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned against intensifying Russian movements during the weeks and months. Coming, at a time when French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said that Moscow seeks to “intimidate and divide the Europeans.”
Pressures approaching NATO's borders
Targeting Ukrainian territory bordering NATO countries does not constitute an attack on the alliance, but the recurrence of incidents near its borders coincides with mounting fears that a mistaken strike or violation of airspace could lead to a more serious test of the limits of confrontation between Moscow and the West.
The American Wall Street Journal indicates that over the past two years, 16 countries in NATO have recorded violations of drones or found their wreckage, while in many cases it is difficult to determine the source of these drones and the method of their launch. These operations put European countries in front of a dilemma regarding how to respond to activities that often remain below the level of a direct military attack.
These fears were strengthened in early September, after Germany held Russia responsible for attempting to target Leipzig-Halle Airport with a drone loaded with explosives in August. Berlin said that investigations indicated that the Russian state provided expertise and equipment for the operation and recruited people to carry it out.
Moscow denies several Western accusations against it of carrying out sabotage and attacks inside Europe, while NATO countries consider that Russian activities include, in addition to the marches, electronic attacks, acts of sabotage, electronic interference, and disinformation campaigns.
Gray area
The sensitivity of these operations lies in the fact that they take place within what is known as the “gray zone” between peace and war. It allows putting pressure on opponents by means that remain below the threshold of traditional war, and in some cases it is difficult to attribute it directly to the party behind it.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American research center, indicates that these activities, which are also described as “hybrid warfare,” include influence operations, cyberattacks, electronic warfare, sabotage, and covert operations. It allows Moscow to exert pressure on its opponents while reducing the risk of causing a conventional military confrontation.
The French newspaper Le Monde reported that the attempt to target Leipzig prompted European countries to search for more effective means to deter Russia, amid Danish intelligence warnings against Moscow recruiting ordinary people through social media to collect information that could be used to plan acts of sabotage.
The ambiguity surrounding the source of some operations gives Moscow room for maneuver. It is difficult to prove her responsibility conclusively. Proving responsibility for a cyberattack or an operation carried out by an agent is more difficult than determining the source of a missile or military aircraft, and a military response to a limited incident may carry risks of escalation disproportionate to its size.
When will NATO move?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty does not mean that every incident occurring on the territory of a member state automatically leads to the alliance entering into war. It stipulates that an armed attack on a member is considered an attack on all, but member states specify the nature of the measures they deem necessary to assist the targeted state.
NATO also confirmed that hybrid operations could, in certain circumstances, reach the level of an armed attack and prompt the Alliance to activate Article 5, but determining this is subject to the Allies’ assessment of each case.
Here emerges one of the most important dilemmas facing the West. Ignoring limited Russian operations could encourage Mosca to further test NATO's limits, while a military response could turn a limited incident into a direct confrontation between Russia and the alliance.
A test of Western deterrence
Russian pressure prompted NATO to strengthen its defenses on its eastern flank since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while the accession of Finland and Sweden expanded the alliance's area and increased the direct borders between it and Russia.
The war also prompted European countries to raise their defense spending and enhance infrastructure protection and capabilities against drones and electronic attacks.
As the strikes move closer to the alliance's borders and accusations of hybrid Russian operations within it increase, the risk of Russian pressure reaching a level that could push NATO to a tougher collective response increases. With the narrowing of the margin between Russian pressure that does not require a direct response from NATO; This may prompt the alliance to respond directly. Miscalculation remains one of the paths that may push the Russian-Western confrontation to a level that neither party seeks to reach.
