Rarely has the outcome of the Ballon d'Or been so uncertain. Among the 30 nominees, around ten have a credible file to receive the supreme individual award on October 26 in London. Above all, no name seems to stand out as obvious, at a time when lobbying campaigns are intensifying.
The first instinct is to look towards the Spanish world champions, a selection chosen above all for its collective strength and its defense having conceded only one goal in eight games - a profile which does not however stick to any obvious individual candidate. Lamine Yamal is undoubtedly the star of La Roja, but he played in the World Cup - any subsequent performance is not considered by the jury - without being in full possession of his means. The 19-year-old Barcelona prodigy was content with a goal and an assist in a World Cup which saw all the other stars multiply individual flashes.
So why not fall back on Rodri? The permanent captain of the selection, the 30-year-old midfielder has already put his name on the Golden Ball list after Euro 2024. But he is coming out of a season largely hampered by injuries with Manchester City, where his aura weakened at the same time as the Cityzens were dethroned in the Premier League by Arsenal.
Winning the World Cup, however, does not guarantee being crowned. Of the last four ceremonies following a World Cup year, only one has crowned a world champion: Lionel Messi, for the 2022-2023 financial year. In 2018, Luka Modric – finalist with Croatia – was preferred to the scattered French applications. In 2014, Cristiano Ronaldo was selected when Portugal did not progress through the groups. Finally, in 2010, Lionel Messi - only quarter-finalist - overtook the Spanish champions Xavi and Iniesta, but also the Dutch finalist Wesley Sneijder.
However, we must not forget that since 2022 precise criteria have been formulated. The selected journalist from each country making up the Top 100 of the Fifa rankings must make their choice by looking firstly at individual performances and their impressive nature, then at collective achievements and, finally, at class and fair play. So, who impressed the most from August 2025 to July 2026? There are many contenders.
Harry Kane, who is currently the bookmakers' favorite, had his most prolific season with 73 goals scored in 65 matches, including club and country. But he stopped in the semi-finals of the Champions League and the World Cup. Ousmane Dembélé, for his part, kept his role as a key player in PSG's coronation in C1, but was less prolific than the previous season (26 goals against 37) and suffered several injuries. Top scorer in the World Cup, the Champions League and La Liga, Kylian Mbappé also has his say, even if he has had a blank season in terms of trophies – he who is also defending his own candidacy.
Title holder Ousmane Dembélé told France Football that he did not think the trophy was undecided, assuming that it "will remain in the hands of a Paris Saint-Germain player". The Parisian imagines a Top 3 composed of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé and his teammate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The Georgian was the most impressive Parisian in the Champions League, proving decisive in every knockout exit, but did not play in the World Cup.
To this already freshly provided list, are added the candidacies of Lionel Messi, sparkling at 39 years old with an Argentina finalist of the World Cup, of Fabian Ruiz - who won the World Cup and the Champions League -, or even Jude Bellingham, Michael Olise and Erling Haaland. So many solid files which confirm, a month and a half before the ceremony, that no favorite is obvious.
