ECB raises rates by 25 basis points: impact on mortgages and credit

More expensive loans and installments increasing by a few tens of euros for variable mortgages, which are thus close to fixed rate ones, starting above 3%. The first effects of the ECB rate hike of 25 basis points will be seen in the coming weeks by credit institutions also considering the possible future increases in the cost of money envisaged by President Christine Lagarde.

The inflation still not tamed above 3% which pushed the ECB to the second increase of 2026 could, according to analysts, then lead to three increases within 12 months, also given the stability of the European economy. A path that would lead to further increases in average market rates: with another increase the average Tan of variable rate mortgages, Mutuionline.it estimates, would rise to 3.30% and, assuming that the fixed rate remains stable at 3.46%, the gap would be reduced to just 16 basis points. However, landline remains the choice expected by the vast majority (over 90%) of Italians.

Frankfurt's decision comes at a time when there was evidence of a return to growth in credit to families. As the general secretary Fabi Lando Sileoni underlines, it was "a positive sign that should not be underestimated because it shows that after a long phase of difficulty an important mechanism for the country's economy has been restarted. The increase decided by the ECB comes just as this recovery is consolidating and it will therefore be necessary to carefully evaluate its effects in the coming months". Sileoni appeals to banks to "maintain a credit offer capable of supporting the real economy".

On this point, Confartigianato notes that in March 2026, loans to small businesses decreased by 4.3% on an annual basis, worsening compared to -4.0% in December 2025. "And the tightening of credit comes while investments in machinery are already showing signs of a slowdown: in the second quarter of 2026 they fell by 2.3% compared to the previous quarter and grew by 1.2% on an annual basis, a sharp deceleration compared to the +6.4% of the first quarter".

And Codacons recalls that after today's decision for "a medium range of variable rate mortgage, of an amount between 125 thousand and 150 thousand euros, for a duration of 25 years, i.e. the most requested amount in Italy by those who take out a loan for the purchase of a house, the monthly installment is destined to rise between 15 and 25 euros as a result of today's decision by the ECB".