This year's Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced on Friday. Last year, US President Trump's name emerged strongly in the discussion around the award, and he even ended up receiving the medal as a gift from its winner.
When the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize is announced next Friday, the influence of US President Donald Trump is expected to be present, despite the slim chances of him personally winning it.
The Nobel Committee faces pressure from Washington
Analysts believe that the five-member committee in Oslo faces the challenge of choosing a person or organization capable of withstanding the pressures coming from Washington. Trump himself had repeatedly and aggressively sought this award.
This time, Trump did not publicly seek to lobby for the award, but there is a possibility that the committee’s choice, whatever it may be, will be interpreted as a direct or indirect criticism of the American president.
“I believe that the events of last year related to the Nobel Peace Prize (...) will influence the committee’s deliberations,” said Haakon Gerlo, interim director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO). He pointed out that there are fears that the winner of the award this year might be exposed to pressure from Trump, explaining that the committee will study whether the award might cause more harm than good in such a case.
Gerlo adds that Trump is “the ghost in the room.” He added that the Nobel Committee must ask itself, “Is there a possibility that awarding this prize will cause harm instead of achieving good?”, in light of the possible reactions from the White House. But the Nobel Institute confirms that it is not concerned.
Committee Secretary Christian Berg Harpviken told AFP, "There is always a lot of pressure, and in the end there may also be attempts to put pressure on the committee. So, we are very accustomed to that to some extent."
He added, "This does not mean that we are not discussing the matter. Of course we have to discuss it, but this does not affect the discussions within the room and the decisions that come from it."
Potential candidates
In light of these facts, and according to the opinions of experts, the Pope, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese, are all viewed as potential candidates for the award.
Pope Leo, the first head of the Catholic Church born in the United States, has declared his continued opposition to the war. Trump called him "weak" for criticizing the US conflict with Iran.
His encyclical on artificial intelligence, his efforts to promote dialogue, and his humanitarian work may also benefit the Pope. “The pope is more than just a religious figure; he has become a pioneering and influential thinker,” says Karim Hajjaj, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
On the other hand, Albanese faces sharp criticism in the United States and Israel because of her position on the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians
Candidates for the award, some of whom may displease Trump
However, the committee may choose a non-controversial alternative to avoid a clash with Trump, as Trump has previously held Norway, where the award is awarded, responsible for not receiving it.
Sudanese Emergency Response Chambers, a network of local aid groups formed during the civil war, or Save the Children are less politically controversial candidates.
At the same time, historian Øyvind Stenersen argues that the committee faces pressure to meet expectations and counter Trump's skepticism of the international order.
The expert says: “In light of this dangerous international situation, awarding the Nobel Peace Prize this year in defense of liberal democracy, international law and human rights is an urgent necessity.”
“We live in an age of predators,” says Nobel Prize historian Asli Svein. “We have Trump, Putin, and Netanyahu.” He added, "They do not want an international system. They want major powers, each with spheres of influence. The International Criminal Court stands in their way."
Reports indicate that Trump has been nominated for the award by the leaders of the governments of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, but his chances of winning are very slim, Gerlo said.
