Bernstein forecasts $10 trillion in annual volumes in prediction markets by 2035

Bet on bitcoin rather than football. Bernstein estimates that annual volumes of predictive markets could reach $10,000 billion in 2035, compared to around $410 billion expected in 2026. The team led by Gautam Chhugani expects average growth close to 70% per year, fueled by the boom in contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities.

Financial assets would then represent 49% of trade, compared to 12% in 2025. The share of sport would fall from 61% to 38%, but its volumes would still be multiplied by more than a hundred in absolute value.

Key Points

Bernstein forecasts $10 trillion in annual volumes in prediction markets in 2035, up from $410 billion in 2026.

Contracts on financial assets would increase from 12% to 49% of volumes, surpassing sport.

Crypto now represents around 20% of Kalshi's volumes and 21% of Polymarket's.

American regulation of sports contracts could remain uncertain until 2027 or 2028.

Crypto and Commodities Expand Predictive Markets

Most prediction markets are based on binary contracts. The buyer generally receives one dollar if the planned event occurs and nothing otherwise. A contract quoted at $0.70 thus reflects an implied probability of 70%. Polymarket and Kalshi have extended this format to politics, sports, economic indicators and financial markets.

The movement accelerated in 2026. Short-term contracts on cryptocurrencies and commodities contributed to the increase in trading. Some notably allow you to bet every fifteen minutes on the direction of the bitcoin price.

On Kalshi, crypto's share increased from less than 5% of volumes in January to around 20% in August. Commodities have also increased, from less than 2 million dollars traded in 2025 to almost 590 million since the start of 2026, including 410 million in the month of August alone.

Quoted by the press, Bernstein's teams are also considering the appearance of contracts centered on a specific indicator of a company: vehicle deliveries, number of subscribers or production volumes. The trader would no longer bet directly on the action, but on the publication of particular operational data.

The addressable market retained by Bernstein's teams reaches approximately $700,000 billion in financial transactions in 2025 and $900,000 billion in 2035. A penetration of just 0.5% would represent nearly $4,700 billion in annual volumes for contracts linked to financial assets.

Kalshi dominates, while sport complicates regulation

The entire sector went from around $50 billion traded in 2025 to nearly $300 billion at the end of August 2026. Kalshi accounted for around 60% of this activity, compared to 35% a year earlier. The platform operates as a regulated market under the supervision of the CFTC, the American derivatives regulator.

Polymarket maintains a different profile. On its international platform, sports contracts accounted for around 52% of volumes since January, up from 39% in 2025. Politics fell from 32% to 22%, while crypto reached around 21%. Transactions there still use USDC on the Polygon blockchain.

The progression of the sport, however, fuels a legal conflict in the United States. Kalshi considers its contracts to be derivatives under the federal jurisdiction of the CFTC. Several states, on the contrary, treat them as sports betting subject to their own licenses. The decisions rendered so far differ depending on the jurisdiction.

Bernstein does not anticipate a definitive clarification before 2027 or 2028. Contracts linked to bitcoin, stocks or raw materials are less exposed to this conflict with the state authorities responsible for gaming. They nevertheless remain subject to the federal framework for derivative products.