Ethiopia faces renewed risk of war in Tigray as tensions escalate

Fears are growing that Ethiopia could be sliding back toward a devastating war in its northern Tigray region, as the government and the political party that controls Tigray accuse each other of launching new offensives.

Tigrayan forces have seized airports in Tigray, and fighting has spread beyond the region into neighboring Afar and Amhara, according to Ethiopian officials and Tigrayan authorities.

Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to Tigray following the seizure of the airports.

Getachew Reda, an adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, accused Tigrayan forces of launching an "all-out offensive" against government positions. Tigrayan authorities say their forces were responding defensively to attacks by federal troops.

The escalation follows months of rising tensions over territory, political power and the implementation of the 2022 peace agreement that ended the last war. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, or ACLED, says Ethiopian forces have carried out drone strikes targeting Tigrayan forces and officials from the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, in recent months, with strikes concentrated in the capital, Mekelle, and southern Tigray.

The TPLF and the federal government fought a two-year war in Tigray that ended with a peace agreement in 2022. It was one of the world's deadliest conflicts in recent times, with some estimates putting the death toll at around 600,000.

The TPLF is the political party that controls Tigray. It announced Sunday that it had formed an alliance with six other armed and political groups seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establish a transitional government in Ethiopia.

Tigray is Ethiopia's northernmost region, bordering Eritrea and home to most of the country's Tigrayan population. Though Tigrayans make up about 6% of Ethiopia's population, they have played an outsized role in national politics. Tigrayan forces helped overthrow a military regime in 1991, and TPLF leader Meles Zenawi went on to govern Ethiopia until his death in 2012.

In recent months, both sides have accused each other of violating the 2022 peace agreement. In May, the TPLF reasserted control over Tigray's regional government after years of administration under an interim government created by the 2022 peace deal.

The International Crisis Group's Horn of Africa director, Alan Boswell, says the latest escalation leaves the federal government facing a critical decision.

"The very big question next is how will the federal government respond? With total all out war? Or will we see a more measured response that tries to contain this and prevent a return to total war in Tigray?"

The renewed tensions in Africa's second-most populous country come as the wider Horn of Africa region is already facing multiple conflicts, including a war in neighboring Sudan that has been raging for more than three years. Ethiopia also faces ongoing fighting in the Amhara and Oromia regions of the country.

The conflict also has the potential to draw in Ethiopia's neighbors, Boswell warns.

"This area borders Eritrea, which is backing the TPLF, so if this war expands there is major risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea."

The escalation is drawing calls for restraint and a return to talks.

The chairperson of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has called for an "immediate de-escalation" and urged both sides to resume talks.