Bert Rürup: Immigration as a growth driver

Dusseldorf. The German economy has returned to a growth path. Overall economic performance is expected to increase by a good one percent this year and next year - at least.

The most important growth driver is the public sector, which now accounts for 52 percent of economic output. The state is upgrading, renovating the infrastructure and hiring staff - while the private sector is currently reluctant to invest and hire new staff.

The federal government's well-endowed special funds and the planned state investments suggest a sustainable upswing - a fallacy! In their autumn report for the government, the major economic research institutes only expect quarterly growth of 0.1 percent in 2028. The reason: The production potential is hardly growing any more.

The key obstacles to growth are the aging of society and the declining volume of work. Technical progress and higher investments cannot compensate for this. The shrinking labor supply has been dampening trend growth since 2024. At the end of this decade, one percent economic growth will be considered a boom.