Bills vs. Vikings odds, picks, player props: Expert's NFL Week 9 best bets for Monday Night Football

The Vikings and Bills lead their respective divisions at 6-1, but there's a big difference in what happens to the team that loses their meeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 9. Buffalo is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Bills have a three-game lead on the Patriots in the AFC East after the Packers stomped New England on Sunday. The Vikings are just a half-game up on the 6-2 Lions, and they would be tied at the top of the NFC North if Minnesota loses. That's how brutal life has been in the NFC North this season.

Complicating matters for the Vikings is the absence of quarterback Kyler Murray, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. There's a lot of speculation that it could be a soft benching (wink-wink), and that speculation will only grow if Carson Wentz plays well against the Bills.

Best bets for Monday Night Football

Over 44.5

Taking an Over on a Vikings game is always a little dangerous, because you're dealing with an elite defense. And the Vikings should come to play on that side of the ball Monday night at home in prime time. But I'm not going to fade Josh Allen putting up points, either, and think this total is just a little too low for the matchup. Allen will be able to lead the team to points, and I think the Vikings' passing offense, even with Wentz under center, should be able to generate plenty of explosive plays because of the various personnel they're utilizing here.

Monday Night Football player props

Justin Jefferson Over 76.5 receiving yards

The move to Wentz is obviously a "concern" in the sense that going to a backup quarterback is usually a bad sign for top receivers. But Wentz is a capable backup who's already played a few games this year. One game was the Bears game, which featured crazy weather. In the other, against the Packers, Wentz targeted Jefferson nine times for eight catches, 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Wentz isn't afraid to lock on to Jefferson, and in prime time against a bad pass defense, I think we'll see quite a bit of Jetta here.

Ty Johnson Over 14.5 receiving yards

Johnson is used pretty sparingly in the running game -- he has just six carries on the season -- but is one of the Bills' favorite weapons to catch the ball out of the backfield. Johnson is up to 15 targets on the season and cleared this number in all but one game. There's some downside risk of a Bills blowout and James Cook just getting fed, but if this is a remotely competitive game, Johnson will get some burn here. He also makes sense as a quick-hitter outlet for Allen when Minnesota sends blitzers his way.

Monday Night Football anytime touchdowns

Dalton Kincaid (+290)

Kincaid has just two scores so far this season, but after his impressive heavy usage from early in the year declined, we have seen more life the past two weeks. Joe Brady openly admitted he kind of got away from Kincaid during the middle weeks to this point, and now he's starting to get more plays designed for Kincaid. I think we see that continue on Monday in prime time.

T.J. Hockenson (+220)

The Bills defense can give up plays through the air, and the Vikings have multiple weapons to attack with. When Wentz filled in for Murray, he did so by feeding Jefferson the ball and then leaning on Hockenson as his No. 2 pass-catching weapon. In the red zone, Hockenson makes all the sense in the world, and we're getting a pretty darn solid price on him here.