Gradually, then suddenly. One year after the record high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, bitcoin lost 32%. A scratch compared to the 69.7%, 82.3% and 74.6% lost one year after the peaks of 2013, 2017 and 2021. This bear market resembles a gentle cure: ETFs (listed funds) which buy up the dips, individuals already drained by leverage, volatility halved. The question of whether the mini-bear market is coming to an end has agitated analysts for months.
Bitcoin at -32%: 2013, 2017 and 2021 are worse
As of October 6, bitcoin was worth $85,453, or 32% below its peak, according to CoinDesk. It has since slipped below $84,000: around $83,900 around 6:30 a.m. (Paris time), according to SpendNode.
The previous three cycles tell a different story. A year after their peak, bitcoin had lost 69.7% in 2013, 82.3% in December 2017 and 74.6% in November 2021. This time, the worst fell on June 30, 2026, around $58,900. It’s 53% at its lowest, compared to 77% to 85% maximum decline in past cycles.
The low also came earlier. Nine months after the summit, compared to a year or more before. Galaxy Research had spotted it on June 9: 51% drop in eight months, when the two previous cycles had taken around twelve months to hit bottom.
ETFs and purged leverage: why the fall is gentler
The lever (credit bets) was cleaned early. On October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in positions were liquidated on derivatives markets, recalls CoinDesk. He never really came back. Without it, there would be no cascading liquidations: the decline took nine months to take hold.
Buyers have changed. For Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, they now come from outside the crypto market: ETFs, asset managers, family offices, companies. Above all, he remembers “the significantly shortened duration of the decline and the reduced time spent at the bottom”. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, describes the mechanics: money allocated via ETFs “rebalances towards target weightings” and “buys weakness by construction”.
The figures point in this direction. Bitwise surveyed 15 large institutions in September: none reduced their crypto allocation during the decline, and several added to their bitcoin positions.
Bitcoin volatility halved: the other side of the coin
Annualized volatility is around 40%, compared to more than 80% in the long term, notes Tim Sun. Charles Schwab measured it at 42% by 2025, half as much as in 2021 and below Tesla and Nvidia. On the options market, the DVOL index remains stuck around 35 points.
Calm has a price. For Jeff Anderson, US head of market maker STS Digital, this falling volatility means “shallower declines and lower highs”. Tim Sun does not rule out flights of fancy. The supply remains capped at 21 million bitcoins, and long-term holders keep a large share.
Institutions don’t just buy. Citi had $3.3 billion in net outflows for the year to the end of June, and reduced its twelve-month flow assumption from $10 billion to zero. At the beginning of July, long-term holders were experiencing around $280 million in losses per day, a record since December 2022 according to Glassnode.
Rate at 5.7%: the threat that can break the smoothness
There is nothing tender about the macro decor. The yield on 30-year US bonds has reached 5.7%, a level from April 2002, with more than 80 basis points of increase in 2026, notes CoinDesk. An asset that pays no interest becomes more expensive to hold when rates rise.
In August, the US Treasury increased its bond buying program to curb the rise. Bitcoin rose from around $64,000 to almost $80,000 in a matter of days. Yields continued to rise. Ardern warns: If the 30 continues to give way, this cycle may not stay so smooth.
He compares the current market to the Nasdaq of the years 1994 to 1999, when each correction remained shallow. The index peaked in March 2000, then lost nearly 78% in about two years. One year of wise decline does not guarantee that the market has changed its nature.
