Bitcoin at $74,600: US inflation at 2:30 p.m. decides the fate of $73,000

Standing still below 75,000. Bitcoin is trading around $74,600 this Tuesday at 6 a.m., down 0.3% over 24 hours and still unable to regain the threshold of $75,000 abandoned during the plunge to $73,761 on Sunday evening. Wall Street rebounded on Monday without him.

The US consumer price index for October falls at 2:30 p.m. Paris time. The markets expect an increase of 0.3% over the month and 3.9% over the year. A figure above would push the dollar and rates higher and bitcoin towards its support of $73,150.

Key Points

BTC is trading at $74,600 before the European opening, ether at $2,117, both down slightly over the day.

The consensus for the October CPI is +0.3% monthly, and futures give an 85% chance of a rate increase in December.

Spot ETFs returned $1.28 billion last week and their 2026 collection fell below zero again.

Bitcoin before the CPI: why a good number will not be enough

The Dow Jones consensus expects +0.3% in October after +0.6% in September, and 2.8% annual underlying inflation. The trap is elsewhere. Rate futures (CME FedWatch) give an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the Fed meeting in early December. This would be the first increase since July 2023. Austan Goolsbee spoke on Monday of the need to “admit failure on inflation”, and Mary Daly in San Francisco does not rule out other turns of the screw.

In this setting, Bitget Wallet sees the zone 73,000-74,000 dollars as the last bastion before 68,000, and it would be necessary to recover and then hold 80,000 dollars to speak of real demand. BRN analysts are drier in their note relayed by CoinDesk: “Bitcoin needs real buyers, not a fluke. Until ETF flows return to positive territory and the Fed becomes accommodative again, the path of least resistance remains downward. »

The levels to keep an eye on have not changed since Sunday. The 200-day moving average moves to $73,150, the 100-day average stalls at $77,430. Between the two, 4,000 dollars of no man’s land where bitcoin has been going around in circles for three sessions.

Bitcoin ETF in the red, miners selling, who is still buying?

Bitcoin spot ETFs lost $1.28 billion between November 2 and 6, including $1.21 billion for BlackRock's IBIT alone, according to The Block. Worst week since June. The balance for the year 2026 has gone negative, and Monday's flows will be known in the morning.

The sellers are identified. MARA sold 13,597 BTC at an average of $81,039 after the close of the quarter, or $1.1 billion to repay 750 million loans backed by its bitcoins. Strategy did purchase 1,036 BTC last week at $79,012, but its average price of $75,456 is now outpacing the price. The 850,364 BTC paid for $64.16 billion is worth $63.4 at this morning's price.

The Fear & Greed index showed 28 on Monday, in the fear zone. Altcoins are gaining more than bitcoin. Ether is trading at $2,117,