Anthropic IPO: $69.3 billion on the table, then backpedaling

Sixty-nine billion, then “oops.” Reuters consulted on Monday a document sent to Anthropic's bankers which estimates the IPO at 866.7 million shares sold at between 70 and 80 dollars each. That would make up to $69.3 billion raised on Nasdaq. A few minutes later, the company warned the same bankers that these figures were false and that a corrected version would follow.

The calendar still holds according to the Wall Street Journal with a first session scheduled for Thursday November 19 or Friday November 20 under the ticker ANT. The doubts of major investors about the valuation were therefore not enough to postpone the operation.

Key Points

The file seen by Reuters forecasts 866.7 million shares at a price between 70 and 80 dollars, plus 26 billion reserved for seven tech giants.

Anthropic immediately reported the inaccurate amounts to its banks, without saying what they were.

The first listing is expected in nine or ten days, in a Nasdaq which is coming out of its worst session since 2020.

Anthropic IPO: what the figures sent to bankers say

The document details a two-stage operation. On the one hand, 866.7 million shares offered to the public between 70 and 80 dollars. On the other, a private placement of $26 billion at the IPO price, reserved for Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC. In other words, the chip and cloud suppliers that Anthropic already pays billions for. The fully diluted valuation would be between $1,270 billion and $1,450 billion.

These amounts are lower than what was circulating a month ago. At the beginning of October we were talking about 2,000 billion valuation and 80 to 100 billion raised. The Nasdaq lost almost 5% last week and 2.5 trillion in capitalization in a single session on November 5. Three major investors then told the Wall Street Journal they wouldn't follow through at $1.5 trillion. The $70-$80 range answers that message.

And then the email. Reuters reports that Anthropic wrote to its bankers that the filing included incorrect figures and that an update would follow. The company has not commented. Impossible to know this morning if it is the range, the number of shares or the amount of the private placement that jumps.

A listing on November 19 or 20 despite a swaying Nasdaq

The Wall Street Journal maintains that the official range is expected to be set this week and that the stock will begin trading on Thursday or Friday of next week. The soap opera has already slipped twice. A roadshow announced for mid-October was postponed until after the midterms, then the hoped-for start for the week of November 9 was called into question by the fall in AI values. On Monday the Nasdaq gained 2.75% while Nvidia lost 4.3%, weighed down by the investigation by its board of directors into Jensen Huang.

The previous OpenAI also weighs. The rival completed a first round of $11 billion last week at a valuation of $1.25 trillion, far from the envelope it was targeting. Anthropic therefore arrives in a market where even the other giant of generative AI has not obtained what it asked for.

On the accounts side, the amended S-1 of November 2 showed $16.96 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 47% over three months, and an operating loss of $567 million. Over nine months, turnover reached 33.24 billion. Raising 69.3 billion therefore represents barely two years of sales at the current rate. And a fraction of the 895 billion calculation commitments signed until 2045, which will have to be paid for with something.