Weekend on drip. Bitcoin is trading around $75,700 this Sunday, November 8 and is down 2.6% over seven days. The calm over 24 hours (less than 0.3%) is misleading. On Friday, BTC slipped to $74,762 and touched its lowest since August 21. However, it still exceeded $80,000 on November 4, the day after the midterms.
Three issues weigh more heavily than any price prediction before Wall Street reopens on Monday. And two of the three come from outside the crypto market.
Bitcoin at $75,700, the Sunday photo
The numbers first. BTC is worth around $75,800 this Sunday at midday. According to CoinGecko, it has not left a corridor of $75,540 to $76,150 for 24 hours. Its capitalization reaches 1,520 billion dollars, or a dominance of 57.85% of a global crypto market of 2,634 billion. The alternative.me Fear & Greed Index (a 0 to 100 rating of market sentiment) fell to 25 on Saturday, in the âextreme fearâ zone, before rising to 28 on Sunday. It was 64 a month ago.
The most followed technical support is right under the price. The 50-week simple moving average is moving towards $75,500 and bitcoin is hovering right there. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, warns that the $75,500 area must hold or risk a decline towards $69,000.
First signal, leverage inflates while bitcoin falls
A violent fall usually cleans the lever. Not this time. Open interest on bitcoin futures contracts measures the total open positions, long and short combined. However, according to Glassnode data relayed on November 6 and 7, it swelled by nearly $1.5 billion during the decline. One billion of that total arrived during U.S. trading hours on Thursday. In addition, financing rates have started to rise again. Leveraged buyers pay this rent to sellers when bullish bets dominate. Clearly, traders buy back the fall on credit.
This fresh lever is piled up on a field of ruins. CoinGlass recorded $1.05 billion in positions liquidated in 24 hours on Friday, the vast majority of which were long positions. An open interest that rises when the price falls creates the fuel for the next cascade. Longs opened this week jump first if $75,500 drops. And if the price rises again, it is the short sellers who run after the market.
Second signal, Bitcoin ETFs return to the red in 2026
The twelve US spot Bitcoin ETFs returned $1.28 billion net last week. This is their worst weekly report since the end of June according to SoSoValue data compiled by The Block. Thursday and Friday concentrated the hemorrhage, with 430 then 412 million exits. BlackRock's IBIT alone signed 403 million withdrawals on Friday, or 88% of the session's gross outflows.
The consequence can be summed up in one number. The 2026 balance of Bitcoin ETFs falls to around -$914 million, while it was still showing +368 million on Monday morning. These funds manage $95.9 billion, or 6.3% of bitcoinâs capitalization. Supposed to bring patient demand from institutions, they nevertheless buy the peaks and sell the troughs like any individual. Thus, their annual counter drops below zero as at the end of May after nine days of consecutive outings.
Third signal, Wall Street reopens with Iran and the AI crash in the lead
On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.4% in its worst session since March 2020. The S&P 500 dropped 4.4%. In total, companies listed on Nasdaq saw $2.5 trillion in capitalization evaporate. The 1.1% rebound of the Nasdaq Composite on Friday did not erase anything. Over the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% while the Nasdaq lost 3.4%. The KOSPI in Seoul triggered a twenty-minute circuit breaker on Friday after a plunge of more than 8% at the opening. It finally closed at -6%.
Geopolitics forms the second front. The Washington Post reported on Saturday, November 7, that the American military is now seeking to disrupt Iran's land supply routes. This pressure is added to the naval blockade in place since the spring. Add the Fed. The 165,000 job creations in October, compared to 65,000 expected, increased the probability of a rate hike in December to 76.8% according to the CME's FedWatch tool. It was 66.9% before publication.
The next test is dated. The weekly bitcoin candle closes at midnight UTC (1 a.m. Monday in Paris) on this 50-week moving average. CME futures will have reopened an hour earlier. On the other side of the Atlantic, the AI ââcrash week left the Nasdaq Composite more than 10% below its October 6 record, in correction territory.
The exact threshold falls to $75,513, the value of the 50-week moving average on TradingView this Sunday. The current candle opened at $78,241 on Monday on Bitstamp. Bitcoin has therefore already returned 3.1% since the start of the week, and it has less than $300 margin left before closing below this support.
