Monetary reprieve. Bitcoin rose to just below $84,000 overnight (+1.5% over twenty-four hours) after John Williams said he saw no reason to raise rates further in 2027. The president of the New York Fed is taking the opposite view from the markets which were still betting on a turn of the screw next year. Bitcoin was struggling the day before at $83,200 after $771 million in liquidations and the Seoul Stock Exchange falling 6%, after a week of repeated purges.
The respite will be short. US inflation for September comes out this Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Paris time, and it will say whether Williams is right.
Bitcoin at $83,900: Williams promises one last rise, then nothing
On Tuesday, in an interview with Bloomberg, John Williams gave a speech that traders were not expecting. An additional rate hike remains “appropriate” this year, but he sees no need to add one in 2027. He describes “disinflationary forces at work,” a labor market that is not fueling prices, and pressure limited to the artificial intelligence and energy sectors. The September increase was, according to him, “risk management”.
The dollar fell on these words. According to CoinDesk, bitcoin was trading just under $83,900 on Wednesday morning in Asia, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index was up 0.7% after two sessions of decline which had brought it to its lowest since August. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which had lost around 8% each the day before, ended five days of decline. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%.
Williams' message carries weight for an asset like bitcoin, which is sensitive to the cost of money. For three weeks, each hot statistic has revived the fear of a prolonged cycle of increases. A Fed official talking about no rate hike in 2027 changes the scene, even if a single speech does not make monetary policy.
Bitcoin ETF: $109.8 million in inflows, Fidelity almost alone to buy
U.S. bitcoin ETFs ended Tuesday's session with $109.8 million in net inflows, according to data from Farside Investors. Fidelity alone captured 103.1 million, Morgan Stanley 6.7 million, and BlackRock did not display any figures at the time of the tally (The Block, which includes late flows, has around 175 million). This rebound does not compensate for the past week. Since October 5, net outflows have reached $634 million over seven sessions, with two red days at 484.9 and 244.1 million on October 7 and 8.
Meanwhile, businesses are buying. Vivek Ramaswamy's company Strive acquired 3,311 bitcoins for $280 million, at an average price close to $84,500, and now holds 32,773 BTC. It wants to raise up to $500 million more via a new preferred stock called SATS, which promises a fixed dividend of 15% and comes after the SATA already in circulation (variable rate, 13% today). Michael Saylor tweeted Tuesday evening that bitcoin was “at the start of a bull market.” Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, judges the bearish cycle to be over and expects twelve to twenty-four months of increase or stagnation.
Oil at $106 and CPI at 2:30 p.m.: what can break bitcoin’s rebound
Brent rose 0.7% to around $106 per barrel after new attacks in the Middle East, which cast doubt on deliveries from the Persian Gulf. American crude rises for the fifth session in a row. Expensive oil fuels inflation, therefore rate increases, therefore pressure on risky assets. The dollar index remained at around 102.50 on Tuesday, its highest since April 2025.
The consensus expects 3.7% inflation over one year in September, compared to 3.4% in August, and 2.4% excluding energy and food. A figure of 3.7% or less would, according to CoinDesk, leave room for a return to around $85,000. A higher figure would reopen the $81,000 support, and the average investor cost price calculated by CryptoQuant, at $80,500.
