Bitcoin Holds Above $78,000 Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Fears

Bitcoin is proving resilient at the start of the week, holding above $78,000 even as fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran drove oil prices higher and pushed equities into the red.

The largest cryptocurrency traded around $78,623 on Monday, down just 0.7% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, after dipping to an intraday low near $77,162. Despite the softer session, Bitcoin is on track to close August with a gain of more than 24%, its best month since 2017.

The steadiness stands out against a rough backdrop for other assets. The weekend brought the first U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes since late July, reviving fears over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and sending crude sharply higher.

West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 2.6% to around $85.60 a barrel. Stocks slid, with the S&P 500 off 0.5% at about 7,673 and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.4% near 26,289.

Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, framed Bitcoin's composure as the more telling story. Kalchev noted that a hawkish Federal Reserve and a live geopolitical escalation rarely hit risk assets in the same week, and argued that Bitcoin holding its ground against both at once is arguably a more meaningful signal than the August gain itself.

Kalchev pointed to derivatives data suggesting traders are repositioning rather than committing fresh capital, with 24-hour volume more than doubling to $183 billion while open interest stayed roughly flat.

Compounding the pressure is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole address, which pushed September rate-hike odds to around 58% from roughly 35% before he spoke. Even gold pulled back, slipping to near $4,440 as the firmer rate outlook outweighed its usual safe-haven appeal.

The session caps a strong but choppy stretch for crypto. Bitcoin's August rally stalled late last week amid Warsh's remarks, while spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a nine-day inflow streak even as Ethereum funds kept drawing cash. Ethereum traded near $2,448 on Monday, down slightly but heading into month-end with a gain approaching 30%.

Attention now turns to Friday's U.S. jobs report and the August CPI reading due September 11.