Bitcoin: Chinese growth at 4.5% saves Black Monday

Black Monday, edition canceled. Wall Street became frightened on Friday and the volatility index soared by 21.5%. Thirty-nine years to the day after the 1987 crash, everyone was waiting for crypto at the checkout this morning. And then China posted growth of 4.5% in the third quarter. Bitcoin is trading around $82,000 at the time of writing and gaining more than 1% over twenty-four hours, while Nasdaq futures are regaining ground. The fear of a Black Monday for cryptocurrencies therefore has its answer, at least for the Asian opening.

Black Friday Stocks, Bitcoin Above $80,000

The S&P 500 dropped 1.1% on Friday October 16 to finish at 7,659 points. The Nasdaq fell 2.1% during the session and 4.5% over the week, after four weeks of increases. The chips have unscrewed. The semiconductor sector posted an eighth session of decline, its longest series since 2008. The VIX, the index which measures expected volatility in American stocks, jumped 21.5% to finish at 19.99. This is its biggest daily increase since June 5, according to TradingView.

Except that the story tells something else. The VIX has gained 20% or more on a Friday thirty-two times since January 1990. According to the analysis published by CoinDesk on October 18, the following Monday was bearish twenty-five times out of thirty-two for an average decline of 4.5%. The seven exceptions carry dates that traders know by heart: August 2015, February 2018, August 2024. Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin above $80,000 did not waver. Volmex measures its thirty-day implied volatility just under 40%, almost unchanged since Friday.

Bitcoin benefits from Chinese GDP when Wall Street doubted

The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics published Monday morning growth of 4.5% in the third quarter at an annual rate, compared to 4.3% in the second and 4.4% expected by the Reuters consensus. Retail sales rose 1.1%, where economists had expected 0.5%. Asia responded within a minute. The Nikkei gained 1.8%, the Kospi 0.6% and Nasdaq futures more than 1%, reports CoinDesk this Monday, October 19 at 3:36 a.m. UTC. This same Kospi had triggered his circuit breaker last Thursday after a fall of 9%.

The rest of the macro table goes in the same direction. Gold is trading around $4,180, the dollar index falls below 102 and oil is falling. Again on Friday, WTI crossed $101 amid tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed meets on October 27 and 28 and is expected to leave its rates in the range of 4.75 to 5% according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Chinese growth was enough to reopen the appetite for risk where stocks linked to artificial intelligence had closed it. For a market that was just waiting for an excuse, Chinese technological exports did the trick.

Bitcoin’s rebound is built on an empty fund

Pay attention to the decor. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $228.4 million in net outflows this week, following $681.1 million the week before. Nearly $910 million evaporated in two weeks while the price held its supports. The MVRV, this ratio which compares the market capitalization to the value of bitcoins at the price of their last movement, returned below its historical thirtieth percentile after the rejection observed around $87,000. On-chain analysts call it an accumulation zone.

Another figure is worth a look. Holders who purchased six to twelve months ago almost no longer send their bitcoins to exchange platforms: 4.4% of their transfers today compared to 40.4% in June, according to CryptoQuant. These don't sell. However, incoming flows on centralized exchanges reached 8,237 BTC over seven days, and Bitcoin remains 35% below its record of $126,198 from October 6, 2025. A market can very well rise in the morning and remain short at the bottom.