Voting day, day of doubt. Bitcoin is trading around $76,700 this Tuesday, November 3 around 6:15 a.m. (Paris time). It lost almost 2% over 24 hours according to CoinGecko. However, the week started between 77,900 and 78,400 dollars. Then a red candle sent the price below $77,000 on Monday. Americans are voting today to renew the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. Bitcoin therefore enters these midterms torn between three opposing forces, and none has yet won.
Bitcoin below $77,000, fear returns to the front
The breakout dates from Monday, November 2. The price then crossed $77,000 downwards. In sixty minutes, more than $100 million in long positions were liquidated, according to Watcher Guru. These are upside bets with leverage. Ethereum fell below $2,250 in the same movement.
The 24-hour toll remains tight. CoinGecko notes a range of $76,498 to $78,309 at 6:15 a.m. Over seven days, it ranges from $76,281 to $81,840. The support at $76,300 still holds. Above, the price has not exceeded $78,600 since Friday.
The Fear & Greed index fell to 26 this Tuesday, November 3. This sentiment barometer rated from 0 to 100 still showed 37 on Monday. The day before the Binance hack on October 29, it was at 51. This is its lowest reading since August 6. Before October 30, the index had not shown fear since August 19.
Bitcoin ETF on release, Tether and Strategy on purchase
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Friday, October 30 according to SoSoValue data relayed by CoinDesk. This was the first session after the Binance hack. BlackRock's IBIT returned 233.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC 201.4 million. Worst day since June 25, with outstandings falling below $100 billion. This session alone erased 63.6% of net inflows for 2026.
Monday didn't help anything. The same funds lost an additional $398.6 million on November 2 according to SoSoValue. IBIT alone returned 405 million, while FBTC recovered 6.7 million. After Friday, only 368 million net admissions remained for the year. Now, the 2026 counter shows about $30 million in net outflows.
Opposite, the big carriers are buying. At the end of October, at the Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano, Paolo Ardoino quantified Tether's treasure at around 150,000 BTC. That’s almost $11.5 billion today. The KuCoin News report published overnight put the figure back on the table. Strategy bought back 811 BTC between October 26 and November 1, for $65.5 million. The company now has 849,327 bitcoins. During Coinbase's quarterly results at the end of October, Brian Armstrong slipped that the exchange had just purchased its 18,000th bitcoin.
The short-term balance remains negative. These business purchases are made in installments or over the counter. Conversely, redemptions of ETF shares are settled every day in cash on the market. Tether took several years to collect its 150,000 BTC without moving the order book. ETFs returned more than a billion dollars in two sessions.
Iran and midterms, the macro keeps control of Bitcoin
The Wall Street Journal confirmed Monday evening “limited” US strikes on the Iranian island of Qeshm. They took place a few hours before the opening of the polling stations. An official cited by the Associated Press speaks of “defensive” strikes against Iranians who were using surface-to-air missiles against American assets. Brent nevertheless closed down 7.6% at $104.77 per barrel on Monday. Traders were in fact betting on an agreement rather than an escalation.
Bitcoin also has a direct interest in these midterms. The crypto sector put $170 million into the election campaign, mostly in favor of the Republicans. On Polymarket, the contract “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?” » is 67.5% yes this Tuesday at 6:15 a.m. His mirror, “Will Bitcoin fall to $75,000 in November?” ”, displays 78.5%. Punters are therefore counting on a passage through the two terminals, or 5,000 dollars in amplitude in the month.
One indicator, however, resists. Bitcoin signed its seventh consecutive weekly close above the 50-week moving average on Sunday, November 1. He had regained it on September 20 after 45 weeks spent below. Alex Thorn, from Galaxy, then recalled that this return has historically confirmed the low point of bear markets. This line passes today towards $75,800, a little more than 1% below the price. A close below next Sunday would break the series.
