US Midterm elections 2026, Dem ahead in key states but Senate in the balance: the polls

Today is the day of the American midterm elections: a vote that could change the balance of Congress, currently in Republican hands. “If they win, I will be Mr Veto,” President Donald Trump threatened, implying that he did not want to be a passive and immobile lame duck. In the last few hours the tycoon has flown from one part of the country to another to convince the MAGA people to vote. “The upcoming election is the most important in American history,” he said. The situation a few hours after the vote was at the center of the episode of the Sky TG24 program Numeri, broadcast on 2 November 2026 (POLLS AND CHALLENGES TO MONITORING).

The polls

If the Chamber seems destined to change political colour, a different story concerns the Senate, which is still in the balance. In all the key states the Democrats are ahead: to reverse the situation the Dems only need to steal 4 seats. Even in Texas, where they haven't won for decades, the situation seems extremely favorable to the Dems thanks to candidate James Talarico. The Grand Old Party, however, still maintains a small advantage in Iowa which however is within the margin of error. In the last few hours, pollsters have further revised the margins of error in key states, also calculating that percentage of voters who are usually most reluctant to respond and which is often also the one closest to the MAGA world. The analysis highlights an uncertain percentage situation in many states, with benefits almost everywhere halved.

Candidates' fundraising

The candidates' ability to raise financing also weighs on the electoral challenge. According to data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Democrat James Talarico, running for Senate in Texas, leads the ranking with over 146.3 million dollars. Behind him are outgoing Georgia senator Jon Ossoff, with 136.6 million, and former Ohio senator Sherrod Brown, who got 68.4 million. A substantial part of the resources comes from small donors: Talarico received 75.3 million dollars through individual contributions not exceeding 200 dollars, while Ossoff raised 66.7 million. Numbers that testify to the Democrats' ability to mobilize their electoral base. On the Republican front, however, Maine Senator Susan Collins leads the fundraising, with 25.2 million dollars. Followed by former congressman Mike Rogers, candidate in Michigan, with 23 million, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Talarico's opponent, with 22.3 million.