Sleepless night for traders. This Tuesday, November 3, the Americans are renewing the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. They also elect 35 of the 100 senators. The crypto sector is playing big in these midterms. Bitcoin was trading around $76,700 at 6 a.m. this morning and lost 2% over 24 hours.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll published the day before gives 32% favorable opinions for Donald Trump. This is barely a point above its all-time low. Several of the five senatorial elections that matter for crypto will be decided between midnight and 3 a.m. Paris time.
Midterms: crypto night hours in Paris time
The first offices in Indiana and Kentucky close at 6 p.m. local time, or midnight in Paris. Then Georgia and Virginia follow at 1 a.m., Ohio and North Carolina at 1:30 a.m. The big wave arrives at 2 a.m. with Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, Kansas and most of Texas. Four of these states, all except Pennsylvania, host the most contested senatorial elections. Texas and Michigan are in the lead. Finally, Iowa closes at 3 a.m., California at 5 a.m., and Alaska at 6 a.m. It will be time for your coffee.
For the House, Decision Desk HQ projects 241 Democratic seats to 194 Republicans. Three seats are enough. The calculation, however, is tougher in the Senate. The Republicans hold 53 seats out of 100 and the opposition needs four net gains. Alaska can take days to strip. A clear answer on control of the Senate can therefore wait until Wednesday during the day.
Trump at 32% and prediction markets leaning Democratic
The Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday, November 2 among 1,765 adults credits the president with 32% approval. It rose one point from its low of 31% recorded two weeks earlier. On national voting intention for Congress, Democrats lead 46% to 38%. The cost of living weighs on the vote of 78% of respondents. Reuters also links the president's slide to the surge in fuel prices linked to the war against Iran.
As of 6 a.m. this morning (Paris time), Polymarket gave Democrats a 94.5% chance of taking the House. He gave them a 76.5% chance of taking back the Senate. The scenario of an entirely Democratic Congress was supported at 76.5%. Kalshi showed 94% and 76% at the same time. These odds, however, move quickly: re-read them before going to bed.
Midterms: what a Democratic House changes for crypto and the CLARITY Act
For these midterms, the crypto sector has bet most of its $170 million campaign on the Republicans. He is therefore going against the trend. The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on September 15 by a vote of 49 to 50, far from the 60 needed. A Democratic Chamber would bury the text as it stands. A Democratic Senate would also entrust the banking commission to Elizabeth Warren, an avowed opponent of the sector. Without law, there is room for agencies. On November 2, the SEC added three questions to its FAQ on crypto-assets. According to her, broad decentralized governance is not in itself a “central part”. A token controlled by its holders can therefore remain a digital commodity, outside the scope of securities.
On the crypto side, New Jersey moved four days before the midterms. According to Cointelegraph, the State Securities Bureau withdrew its 2023 order on October 30. This text prohibited Coinbase staking by residents. The regulator also drops the $5 million fine that accompanied it. On the other hand, four states (California, Maryland, Wisconsin, Washington) are maintaining their prosecutions.
41 local votes on AI data centers under the eye of Wall Street
Monday evening, the Wall Street Journal highlighted the risks of local elections for Wall Street and the AI bet. Ballotpedia lists 41 local measures related to data centers on this Tuesday's bulletins. They are located in ten states, including Ohio, Maine, Kansas and California. Ohio alone accounts for 21 of these votes. Voters in Conneaut, Defiance and Sunbury are voting on banning any installation of more than 25 megawatts. Ottawa, Kansas, votes for the same limit.
Not all are going in this direction. Thirteen of the 41 measures, on the contrary, facilitate projects, including that of Boulder City (Nevada) which votes to welcome them. The other 28 carry the anger of voters who refuse to pay the electric bill for the AI race. Bitcoin miners know this subject by heart since they converted their sites into computing centers. A “no” to Sunbury would weigh on a $2 billion Amazon project, according to Reuters.
