Bills, discount from 2027, a new decree to set the gas ceiling

The discount on bills will start in 2027 and will concern variable price indexed contracts. The agreement reached at European level is for now a preliminary political agreement, which requires further technical discussion and the development of a new decree, which is expected to arrive at the end of the year and which will in fact modify the provisions of the previous Bills decree, given that it will not affect the so-called ETS.

The agreement establishes, for a transitional period of one year, a 'price cap' on the price of gas of around 60 euros. This value is also indicative at the moment. This ceiling, at the end of the drafting and technical comparison, could in fact be set at a slightly lower value, around 58-59 euros. The difference between the market cost - now between 85 and 90 euros - and the ceiling is around a third. But in the end - at a first estimate - the amounts that families will pay with a variable contract could decrease by around 10%, given that there are some fixed costs in the bill. Help will also come for businesses, which will benefit from around 1.3 billion (the estimate is from the Ministry of the Environment) deriving from the sale of gas stored by the GSE and Snam.

The political agreement with the EU is a mediation between the requests of Italy, which wanted a ceiling on the price of gas of around 40 euros - as loudly requested by the president of Confindustria - and the EU which wanted to set this bar at 80 euros. In the end a meeting point was found in the middle. This is not an absolute novelty: the measure has already been authorized in 2022 in Spain and Portugal, the so-called 'gas tope', which then granted, in a different context, an exception for six months, setting the ceiling then at 40 euros, with an increase of 5 euros for each subsequent month.

In fact, the agreement with Italy allows us to overcome some distortions in the electricity market. The wholesale price of electricity in EU countries is set hourly based on the cost of producing the most expensive source needed to meet demand. Italy's energy mix sees a predominance of the most expensive source, gas, in electricity production. This affects the cost of 70-75% of the hours of consumption on the bill. The reduction in the basic price thus has more impact than the greater burden due for the difference between the ceiling and the market price of gas, a burden which - according to European indications - will be paid "only by consumers who benefit from it".

However, the process now involves the technical finalization of the measure, then the notification to the European Antitrust - which will have to verify that it is not state aid - then the launch of the decree with the value of the 'ceiling'. Finally, the new electricity tariffs will be set by Arera, which is the competent authority for the sector.

Originally, with the February Bill Decree, the Italian government had planned to shift the cost of the European ETS tax on electricity production with gas to consumers' electricity bills. However, the measure had to have the green light from the European Commission, which has the authority regarding ETS. Brussels ultimately rejected this fiscal measure, but allowed Italy to cut the price of gas for electricity generation with a different instrument, namely a price cap.