Bolsa Família enters the center of the presidential elections with repeated and critical proposals

Since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's first term in office, in 2003, Bolsa Família has been a recurring theme in presidential elections due to the number of people served — there are around 20 million families — and the effects on the income, work and voting of the poorest sections of the population.

In this election, Lula amplified the debate by announcing an unexpected 15% increase in benefits in the social program 17 days before the election, at a moment of fragility in his campaign in the face of the advance of his main opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), in the polls. The minimum program transfer increased from R$600 to R$691 per family.

Folha researched the programs and the candidates' speeches to find out what the plans for the program are. Almost none of the presidential candidates bring new proposals that address the main challenges of Bolsa Família, such as measures to expand the benefit for the population in extreme poverty or changes in the design that eliminate incentives for informality.

Lula promises to "maintain and improve" the income transfer policy, but does not point out the ways to achieve this goal in the event of Lula 4.

Among the opponents, everyone talks about encouraging beneficiaries to leave Bolsa Família to enter the job market or become entrepreneurs. The program is criticized for being associated with the idea that it generates dependency and harms employability.

Different studies show that Bolsa Família is effective in promoting social mobility. A survey by FGV, for example, showed that 60.68% of beneficiaries from 2014 left the program by 2025.

"Bolsa Família is still a program that generates social mobility because it prevents a level of extreme poverty," says Daniel Duque, researcher at FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation).

Sergio Firpo, professor at Insper, says that the design has weaknesses. For him, Lula's readjustment should prioritize poorer families with children, avoiding proportionally larger transfers to adults in single-person families.

Without strict income verification, beneficiaries avoid formalization so as not to lose the aid. The drawing could help them look for employment with a formal contract.

"Bolsa Família generates an incentive to remain informal. Informality generates volatility, and volatility leads you to the program. You stay in this trap of informality", said Firpo, who was Secretary of Spending Review at the Ministry of Planning.

Candidates opposing President Lula (PT) propose measures that already exist for Bolsa Família, such as maintaining the aid for a transition period, in case of an increase in income.

Flávio Bolsonaro spoke out in favor of maintaining the benefit, if elected, but criticized the adjustment granted by Lula.

"Do you think you're going to buy the vote of the poor by giving another R$90 a month? In addition to maintaining this adjustment, I'm going to do a lot more," he said, during a live broadcast on his social networks.

In the past, Flávio Bolsonaro was critical of social policy and even called it "bran bag". He changed his speech, but his government plan does not even mention the name “Bolsa Família”.

The plan talks about creating training paths that facilitate entry into the job market, in addition to giving priority to beneficiaries in first job programs.

Different versions of this type of action have been implemented over the years. Today, there is the "Acredita no Primeiro Passo" program, which offers work, study and entrepreneurship opportunities for those in CadÚnico, including microcredit.

The program has already benefited 393 thousand people from entrepreneurship actions, according to data from the Secretariat for Socioeconomic Inclusion. For Daniel Duque, despite Flávio's proposal, it is difficult to improve what is already implemented.

The plans of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Augusto Cury (Avante) talk about proposing a transition rule for those who leave the program due to an increase in income. According to the proposal of the PSD and Avante candidates, the value of the aid would be maintained, with a gradual reduction while the person establishes himself in the job.

In 2023, a rule was created for the program and provides that, even if the family income exceeds R$218 per person, they can continue receiving 50% of the value of the benefit they received before, for a period of up to 18 months.

Caiado's government plan also talks about integrating data from CadÚnico, Suas (Unified Social Assistance System), health, education and housing to improve the diagnosis and monitoring plan for public policies. This would also help update registrations and combat fraud, according to the candidate.

CadÚnico already uses data from Suas, in addition to the presence system of the Ministry of Education and data from RNDS (National Health Data Network). However, there is still a series of information that can be better used, according to Firpo.

"It is not fully integrated. There are several legal barriers that justify this. But at the same time, according to the LGPD [General Data Protection Law] itself, you can have access to data, as long as it is for the formulation of public policies", he states.

Renan Santos (Missão) and Romeu Zema (Novo) are the presidential candidates most critical of the program. Zema said he considers the readjustment on the eve of the election to be illegal.

The government plans of both candidates argue that beneficiaries need to work to maintain the aid.

At an event promoted by the CNI (National Confederation of Industry), Zema stated that Bolsa Família would be creating a "generation of worthless people" and that businesspeople would be having difficulty hiring labor due to the program.

The Novo candidate's government plan states that, in the case of adults who are healthy and able to work, aid will only be given if they are working, studying or qualifying. If they refuse formal job offers without justification, the benefit would be suspended.

Zema also proposes a prize of R$5,000 for families that exceed the income limit and voluntarily leave the program. Carlos da Costa, the candidate's economic advisor, stated in an interview with Folha's C-Level program that the candidate will unify Bolsa Família with the BPC (Continuous Payment Benefit), Pé-de-Meia, Gás do Povo, salary bonus and other social programs, if elected.

Renan Santos talks about replacing Bolsa Família with work fronts. The working-age population would receive remuneration in exchange for working on work projects aimed at the public good. Only those who are unable to work will be entitled to the benefit.

In an interview with C-Level, federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (Mission), economic representative of Renan, stated that the CRAS (Social Assistance Reference Centers) would do this screening.

"[Candidates' speeches] reveal a bit of ignorance about what the program does and also a certain prejudice, as if the beneficiary of Bolsa Família was someone who doesn't want to work, which is not true," says Firpo.

WHAT EACH CANDIDATE PROPOSES FOR BOLSA FAMÍLIA

Lula (PT):

Adjustment of 15% of the benefit (already granted)

Maintain and expand Bolsa Família, without detailing how

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)

Expand training for beneficiaries and access to their first job

Prohibit use of the benefit in betting (already exists)

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)

Create transition rule that maintains the benefit after an increase in income (already exists)

Integrate social, health and education data to improve tracking and combat fraud

Augusto Cury (Avante)

Create transition rule that maintains the benefit after an increase in income (already exists)

Use the program to encourage entrepreneurship (already exists)

Romeu Zema (New)

Condition the benefit of adults able to work, study or qualify

Give R$5,000 to families who voluntarily leave the program after an increase in income

Unify Bolsa Família, BPC, Pé-de-Meia, Gás do Povo and other benefits

Renan Santos (Mission)