Bolsonaro leads in first round of Brazilian elections, but lead could shrink

The next president of Brazil should be decided in the October 25th ballot: when around 40% of the votes have been counted, this is the most likely figure. Flavio Bolsonaro has around 50.4% of the votes, Lula at 41.4. A very large gap which, however, is unlikely to remain so at the end of the count. However, at the moment, the Trumpian candidate appears to be the favorite for final victory.

Traditionally, in fact, the first phase of the counting is very favorable to the sovereignist candidate: the first seats to be counted come from the rich southern states, where Bolsonaro is very strong. Only later will the data arrive from the north-eastern states, Lula's strongholds, which on paper should reduce the gap between the two. At 10% of the vote, Bolsonaro had a 10 point lead, at 40% of the vote, 9 points. And it is thought that this trend, this rapprochement between the two, will continue until the end.