Brazil ballot: Lula and Bolsonaro Jr in a technical tie according to the latest polls

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to the latest poll before today's vote, has reduced the gap in voting intentions compared to the Brazilian president and candidate for re-election, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. On the eve of the first round of the elections, in fact, the progressive leader received 45% of the valid votes, while the far-right senator reached 42%. This is a substantial situation of technical draw, according to the Datafolha Institute, which excludes blank and null votes and the calculation of undecided votes. The poll interviewed over two thousand voters across the country between October 1 and 3 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Indeed, according to another poll, that of PoderData/AYA and published by CNN Brazil, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro would be tied with 46% in the second round. The survey conducted by the institute conducted 4,000 interviews nationwide between September 30 and October 2, with a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points. Voters who declare they intend to vote blank or blank represent 7% of the total sample.

Flavio Bolsonaro - ©Ansa

As the vote approaches, Lula has always promoted multilateralism, so much so that, speaking at the UN, he said that his country "will never be anyone's backyard". Bolsonaro, for his part, has already announced that he is ready to join the Shield of the Americas, the military coalition promoted by the USA which all the sovereignist leaders of the region have joined. In the last few hours, among other things, the two candidates have given life to the final blows of a rather turbulent electoral campaign, marked by judicial scandals, low blows, fake news, but also external threats.

To counter his political opponent, Lula said that "on the one hand there is the democratic revolution, the rights of women and workers, on the other there is barbarism, fascism". He then urged everyone, but especially those over 70, to go to the polls: "If you don't want to vote for yourselves, vote for your grandchildren, for your children, for Brazil", he declaimed at the last rally in Sao Paulo. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, called for a "rebel" vote against "evil, corruption", in favor of "economic freedom and security, against narco-terrorists". But it even evoked a tough fight. “The runoff will be held in more than three weeks, a period of time that could add more blood to our history.”

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva - ©Ansa

In this particularly heated climate, it seems unlikely that the 160 million voters will be able to reward one of the two candidates with 50% plus one of the votes. Thus, barring any surprises, the 40th president of Brazil should be elected at the end of the month. Voting will take place from 8am to 5pm Brasilia time (from 1pm to 10pm in Italy) and 26,000 soldiers have already been mobilized to the polls. You vote for a number and not a name: Lula has 13, Bolsonaro Jr the same as his father, 22. With the electronic electoral system the final results will be known within a few hours. 27 governors, 513 federal deputies, 54 senators and 1,059 state and district deputies will also be elected. Abstention is possible at 20%, but it could also be lower. The voter who goes to the polls can also vote blank or cancel the vote which is mandatory for literate Brazilians between 18 and 70 years old. The fine for those who do not justify their absence is up to 3.51 reals, approximately 50 euro cents. For young people aged 16 and 17, illiterates and those over 70, participation is, however, optional.

A polling station - ©Getty

Meanwhile, it has emerged that the Brazilian Federal Police has seized around 4.4 million euros (27 million reais) in cash as part of operations against vote-swapping ahead of the first round of the elections. This was reported by CNN Brazil. So far, 1,300 investigations have been opened and 52 people have been accompanied to the offices of the Federal Police to provide clarifications. The states with the highest number of suspects for electoral crimes, open investigations and ongoing operations are Ceará, Rio de Janeiro and Maranhao. As regards cash seizures, the most relevant cases are concentrated in Tocantins, Roraima, Pará, Amazonas and Amapá.

“Threats, harassment or attempts to interfere with the will of the voters, in any form, will be immediately repressed.” This is the warning launched by the president of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), Kassio Nunes Marques, on the eve of today's general elections, 4 October. In a message broadcast on radio and television, the magistrate defined voting as "a fundamental right" and reminded candidates and supporters that "the decision is exclusively up to those who vote". Nunes Marques also defended the security and transparency of electronic ballot boxes, used in Brazil for thirty years, ensuring that the system has adequate control and verification mechanisms.

There will be, as mentioned, a large deployment of men and women from the Brazilian Armed Forces in the field, with approximately 26,500 soldiers already mobilised. Navy, Army and Air Force personnel will be deployed in 482 municipalities in 12 states, for a total of 8,827 polling stations. The operation - at the request of the electoral justice system - includes security measures during voting and counting, as well as the transport of ballot boxes, equipment and personnel to isolated communities, indigenous reserves and other hard-to-reach territories. Logistical support will involve 121 locations in eight states, where planes, helicopters, boats and military vehicles will be deployed.