Anthropic's IPO - controversial gold rush in San Francisco

It was originally expected that the AI ​​group Anthropic would start its roadshow before the IPO this week, i.e. present its plans to potential investors. The move to the stock market should then take place by the end of the month. But after the tech stocks crash on the stock markets following the Democrats' victory in the midterms, there is speculation that Anthropic's schedule could be delayed.

Potential investors are now pushing for a significantly lower valuation at Anthropic. Instead of the originally targeted maximum valuation of up to two trillion dollars, insiders “only” expect a valuation of around 1.2 trillion dollars. Either way, the gold rush in San Francisco, where Anthropic is based, is coming. And he is hoped for and feared. Because the prices for houses and rents could be driven up further.

Thousands become millionaires

Anthropic is the first pure AI company that has developed Claude, one of the world's largest language models, and is now daring to go public. Once the company is listed on the stock exchange, employees and investors can turn their previously only paper wealth into real cash.

They can take out loans even before the blocking period for the share sale. Accordingly, the San Francisco Bay Area is preparing for a gold rush as thousands become millionaires overnight.

The chief economist for the city of San Francisco, Ted Egan, sees Anthropic's move to the stock market as a turning point for the local economy, the likes of which the region has not seen since the IPO of the transportation service provider Uber in 2019. In the coming months, enormous wealth will be created in San Francisco and the Bay Area.

And while the city can't directly tax assets or income from stock sales, it will get its money's worth through real estate transactions, Egan explains. When real estate is sold, there is a transaction tax that the seller pays to the city. For high-priced properties sold for more than ten million dollars, this rate is 5.5 percent - so it's a significant amount of money.

Prices are the highest in the USA

The real estate company Red Fin Homes in San Francisco calculated in September that real estate prices there are currently the highest in the entire USA. According to the "San Francisco Association of Realtors", the average price for a single-family home in San Francisco is around three million dollars - with demand increasingly focusing on the higher price segment, says association representative Jay Cheng on ABC. In a comparison between the first quarter of 2025 and 2026, the number of sales of houses worth over five million dollars increased by 69 percent.

Real estate agents like Austin Klar are observing increasing buyer interest while at the same time a tight supply. The situation is more extreme than it has been for many years. Many sellers are currently holding back because they are expecting a real explosion in prices after the Anthropic IPO and are not yet putting their properties on the market. There are fewer sellers, but more and more interested buyers.

People with normal incomes are left behind

With this price spiral, people with normal incomes who don't work in the lucrative tech industry are of course left behind. Because of the high price structure, building in San Francisco is comparatively expensive. According to city guidelines, around 82,000 new apartments would have to be built by 2031, but the city is behind schedule.

Sam Moss, managing director of the non-profit housing association Mission Housing Development Corporation, also fears that the situation for residents with average salaries could become even worse. It is already sad that most people can no longer afford to own their own home.

Slow approval processes

San Francisco's permitting process is considered the slowest in the country. The local system allows residents to block or significantly downsize construction projects over objections and public debate for years, usually out of concern for the character of the neighborhood.

In this respect, Sam Moss believes that political decision-makers at the local, state and federal levels have a duty: It is probably easier to demonize software developers than to critically question laws that have made it more difficult to build affordable housing in San Francisco for generations.