From the Handelsblatt archive: A curve from the 19th century predicts the development of the markets with astonishing precision. For 2026 she recommends selling stocks. How reliable it really is.
“Periods When to Make Money”: The graphic aims to predict stock market prices. Photo: Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices
Dusseldorf. It is every investor's dream: predicting stock market prices for the coming years and investing accordingly. A precise look into the future promises clever investments and correspondingly high returns. A graphic keeps circulating on the Internet that seems to be able to fulfill this lucrative promise: “Periods when to make Money” from the 1870s.
The graphic shows cyclical developments on the financial market and makes recommendations as to when buying shares could be particularly worthwhile. Hobby analysts repeatedly point out that the curve predicted crises such as the crash of 1929, the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the beginning of the 2000s and the corona crash of 2020 with astonishing precision.
The graphic also mentions the year 2026 and recommends selling assets. How much truth is there in it?
Andreas Hackethal is a professor at the Frankfurt Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research SAFE. He took a closer look at the graphic for the Handelsblatt and explained: “Behind it is the old need of market participants to recognize long-term regularities in the randomness of stock movements.”
However, the assumptions of the graphic were not based on economic reasons, but on planetary constellations - in other words, on astrology. Hackethal makes it clear: “This has nothing to do with the markets.”
New York Stock Exchange 1929: A graphic from the 1870s is said to have, among other things, predicted the stock market crash. Photo: New York Daily News/Getty Images
Today it is difficult to understand exactly how the graphic was created. Some sources suggest that it was based on the predictions of pig farmer Samuel Bennet, who originally wanted to predict the price development of pigs and corn by the end of the century.
Other sources attribute it to a man named George Tritch, who is said to have continued it up to the year 2059 and added the astrological component.
Amazingly accurate predictions
The reason why the graph still attracts attention today is that, given that it was created in the 19th century, it makes some surprisingly accurate predictions. She recommended selling securities in the years
1927 (before the Great Depression of 1929)
1999 (before the dot-com bubble burst)
2007 (before the 2008 financial crisis)
2019 (before the corona shock)
Some financial bloggers point out that the graph has 90 percent precision in its prediction. So she continues to haunt social media, YouTube videos and blogs. Many investors who have decided to understand the market are concerned with its relevance. Finally, she explicitly mentions 2026 as a year in which investors should rather sell their assets.
According to Hackethal, this at first glance astonishing precision is due to pure probability rather than real analysis. “If you asked a hundred people to write a stock market forecast a hundred years ago, there's a good chance one of them would have been relatively accurate,” he says. All predictions that were not true have long since been forgotten. The fact that the graphic has so far been right by chance does not mean that it will continue to be right in the future.
A complex world
So can there be no discernible cycles in the financial market? “Of course there are ups and downs in prices on the markets, i.e. cyclical behavior,” says Hackethal. In the past, simple supply-demand mechanisms - such as agricultural or industrial bottlenecks - characterized these cycles, but today it is primarily technological breakthroughs that raise great hopes for productivity and profits.
The world is too complex for simple patterns in long-term stock market developments. Andreas HackethalProfessor at the Frankfurt Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research SAFE
But there are also other phenomena that influence investment behavior, such as the weather or major sporting events. “When the sun is shining and it is particularly warm outside, private investors trade less,” explains Hackethal. However, those who still operate on the stock market when the weather is good often opt for particularly risky stocks.
The influence of investor sentiment is also evident in sporting events. “If your own team is eliminated from the World Cup, then share prices in the home market will fall noticeably on that day,” says Hackethal.
The professor therefore emphasizes that there are many determinants in the financial market that influence prices. “The world is too complex for simple patterns in long-term stock market developments.” In terms of market logic, these could not exist at all. Because: “If certain ups and downs were predictable, then investors would buy or sell beforehand.” The patterns would be anticipated and thus destroyed.
“Imagine if everyone knew in advance when a panic would break out,” says Hackethal. “Then everyone would calmly sell their assets beforehand and there would be no more panic.” So it would be a prophecy that would prevent their own occurrence.
The real pattern in market behavior
Hackethal has sobering news for all private investors who try to predict price trends and act accordingly when investing: “Market timing doesn’t work.” He explains that just a few outstandingly good days on the market determine a large part of the return. “In most years, if you miss the top ten days, you’re already in the negative,” he says. The danger of this is great if you keep getting in and out.
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Hackethal points out that there are certainly rules in the financial market that can be followed. “A basic rule is that the more diversified risk you have, the higher the expected return is,” he says. This means that two of the most important basic rules for successful trading are worth more than a 150-year-old prophecy: diversify investments and ride out setbacks.
More: Invest correctly: Nine ETF portfolios for every situation
This article was published in January 2026. The article was checked again on July 9, 2026 and updated with slight adjustments.
