Political Climate and Uncertainties After the Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections

Istanbul Rumeli University Rumelia Studies Application and Research Center (RUÇAM) Director and Political Science and Public Administration Department Dr. Faculty Member Erdem Eren wrote about the political climate in the country after the general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina for AA Analysis.

On Sunday, October 4, 2026, voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina determined the Bosnian, Croatian and Serb members of the Presidency Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the council members who will serve at the state, entity and canton levels. The elections, like the 2022 elections, were held in a climate where ethnic and identity politics were centered and the impact of constitutional ethnic division on national politics continued. The funeral ceremony of Ratko Mladic, who was considered a war criminal for the crime of genocide he committed in the Bosnian War, was commemorated as a national hero in Serbia, and was met with reaction by both Bosnians and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was eagerly awaited how the current events would affect the election.

Bosnian, Croatian and Serb membership results

The most curious issue of the election was undoubtedly whether Democratic Action Party (SDA) Chairman Bakir Izetbegovic, son of the late Aliya Izetbegovic, the founding leader of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, would win the election for the Bosnian membership of the Presidential Council. According to the data of the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CIK), while Bakir Izetbegovic could not win the election again as in 2022, SDA managed to become the first party at both the state and entity level. The party increased its vote rate by 25 percent in the 2026 general elections compared to the previous 2022 general elections at all levels across the country. While Izetbegovic lost the race for the Presidency Council membership against Denis Becirovic, candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Semir Efendic, who ran for the Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina, finished third and Fahrudin Radoncic finished fourth.

The biggest surprise of the election was the rising trend of Bosnia and Herzegovina Party leader Semir Efendic. Efendic, who has a younger profile than the other candidates, became the leader who directly determined the election results by receiving approximately a quarter of the votes. He also increased his party's votes by approximately 40 thousand compared to the 2022 elections. It can be said that Efendic is an important candidate for the future of Bosnian politics and especially in the regular 2030 elections.

Denis Becirovic, who was elected by the "United for the State of Bosnia and Herzegovina" bloc with the support of 14 political parties, continued his current success by being elected as the Bosnian member of the Presidential Council for the second time. Bakir Izetbegovic, on the other hand, could not win the election for membership of the Presidential Council two times in a row, both in the 2022 and 2026 elections. Moreover, Izetbegovic received fewer votes than his party, SDA, and lost more than 30 thousand votes compared to the 2022 elections. Current results show that Izetbegovic still has a strong position in Bosnian politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but his leadership popularity is gradually decreasing.

In the race for the Serbian membership of the Presidential Council, Zeljka Cvijanovic, candidate of the Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), came first again, while Marinko Bozovic, candidate of the Serbian Democratic Party, came second, and Nebojsa Vukanovic, candidate of the Party for Justice and Order, came third. Zeljka Cvijanovic, the current Serbian member of the council and who was re-elected, was the candidate of the party of Milorad Dodik, who is known for his separatist rhetoric in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the race for the Croatian membership of the Presidential Council, Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) candidate Darijana Filipovic came first, while Democratic Front (DF) candidate Slaven Kovacevic came second and independent candidate Zdenko Lucic came third.

From election results to an uncertain future

Following the election results, Denis Becirovic was elected as the Bosnian member of the Presidential Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zeljka Cvijanovic was elected as the Serbian member, and Darijana Filipovic was elected as the Croatian member. While Becirovic states that they will continue to progress towards the European Union (EU) and NATO, he insists that the future of the region is in the European model, not the Russian model. Stating that Bosnia and Herzegovina is also their homeland, Filipovic noted that he wanted his work to be an example of how Bosnia and Herzegovina's institutions can function differently.

Cvijanovic stated that the victory belonged to SNSD led by Milorad Dodik and said, "Our policy is a stable and strong Republika Srpska." he said. The election posters also featured photographs of Cvijanovic and Dodik, who is banned from politics in the country. The fact that SNSD candidate Savo Minic won the presidency of the Republika Srpska (RS), one of the two entities in the country, shows that SNSD and therefore Dodik leadership are very strong in Serbian politics at both entity and state levels.

Cvijanovic's point to a strong Serbian Republic rather than a strong state of Bosnia and Herzegovina shows that Serbian politics in the country will continue to defend separatist attitudes and ideas. In addition, there is a great concern that HDZ will take steps towards the establishment of a third entity consisting of Croats in the new period under the leadership of Filipovic. These concerns naturally lead the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina into great uncertainty.

The decrease in the election participation rate, which was 51.5 percent in the 2022 elections, to 41.5 percent in this election, shows that the society of Bosnia and Herzegovina is losing hope for the future of the country with each passing day, and points to one of the main factors of migration from the country. "Youth migration" is considered one of the country's most fundamental problems. In addition, the diaspora of Bosnia and Herzegovina displays a rather indifferent attitude towards the country's politics.

Essentially, every election brings with it a new uncertainty. The main source of this atmosphere of uncertainty is thought to be the Dayton-based constitutional system, which is a structural obstacle to achieving permanent stability in the country and embeds ethnic divisions in the functioning of the state. The constitutional system based on clear institutional boundaries and ethnic distinctions drawn by the state system clearly restricts reformist steps in the country. While structural problems continue in the country, on the other hand, the country's agenda is exposed to political debates. Therefore, elections do not bring radical changes.

The historical role of the Dayton Peace Agreement in ending the war and establishing peace with a ceasefire is not questioned, but it does not seem possible to defend the sustainability of the current constitutional order. The constitutional order continues to promise not social integration, stability and prosperity, but an environment of ongoing chaos divided by ethnic divisions.