Brewers vs. Padres prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB NLDS Game 3 picks for Tuesday, Oct. 6, by top model
Quick Look
- The Milwaukee Brewers aim to close out their NLDS series against the San Diego Padres in Game 3 on Tuesday, holding a 2-0 lead after a comeback win in Game 2.
- SportsLine's predictive model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times, projects the over/under at 7.5 runs to hit 59% of the time and favors the over, while also identifying value on one side of the money line.
- The model further projects individual player performances, including total bases for key hitters on both teams.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Milwaukee Brewers won the NL Central with a 103-59 record and lead the NLDS 2-0 over the San Diego Padres, who finished second in the NL West at 91-71. Game 3 is scheduled for Tuesday at Petco Park in San Diego.
The Milwaukee Brewers will look to close out their National League Division Series with the San Diego Padres when they meet in Game 3 on Tuesday. Milwaukee took a 2-0 series lead with a thrilling 4-3 come-from-behind win in Game 2 on Sunday. The Brewers (103-59), who won the NL Central, are 48-33 on the road this season. The Padres (91-71), who finished second in the NL West, are 51-30 on their home field. Milwaukee will send right-hander Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA) to the mound, while San Diego counters with right-hander Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA). Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 trading bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:
First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. San Diego is a -134 favorite on the money line (risk $134 to win $100) in the latest Brewers vs. Padres odds, while the over/under, is 7.5. Before making any Brewers vs. Padres picks, be sure to see the Brewers vs. Padres predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
SportsLine's model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and enters the divisional round of the 2026 MLB playoffs on a 31-25 run on all top-rated MLB money-line picks at betting sites, returning more than $900 for $100 players. Anyone following its picks at MLB betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Brewers vs. Padres and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Padres vs. Brewers:
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Top Brewers vs. Padres predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Brewers vs. Padres, the model is going Over 7.5 combined runs for over/under betting. The Over is 6-4 in Milwaukee pitcher Dustin May's last 10 starts. The Over is also 5-3-1 when Nick Pivetta starts for San Diego. The Over is also 57-56-5 in Padres' games against teams averaging 4.2 runs or more.
SportsLine's model projects 1.2 total bases or more for the Brewers' Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Cooper Pratt and Christian Yelich. The Padres, meanwhile, are projected to get 1.3 total bases or more from Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado. The model projects the teams to combine for 8.6 total runs, as the Over hits 59% of the time. Get the Brewers vs. Padres money-line pick at SportsLine.
How to make Brewers vs. Padres picks
After simulating every pitch of Brewers vs. Padres 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The over/under of 7.5 combined runs will hit.
Likely · Within hours
One side of the money line has all the value.
Possible · Within hours
Open Questions
- Will the Brewers close out the series in Game 3?
- Can the Padres avoid elimination with a home win?
- How will the starting pitchers perform in Game 3?
