Deep underground, below one of central London's tube stations, the British army has been simulating a 2030 large-scale land conflict between NATO and Russia sparked by Kremlin aggression in Eastern Europe.
The disused platform of Charing Cross station was transformed this week to create a subterranean command post in Estonia, housing a U.K.-led NATO offensive formation capable of deploying quickly to command tens of thousands of troops on the alliance’s eastern flank.
The scenario envisages two years of covert Russian actions, military build-up and large-scale exercises as it positions troops for a conflict with NATO. This would see cyberattacks on Estonia across transport, internet and health care infrastructure alongside anti-NATO and anti-European disinformation campaigns.
Article 5, NATO's mutual defense clause, would be triggered by Western allies after Russian forces crossed into Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The exercise was designed to demonstrate NATO's capability to strike as far as St. Petersburg in order to destroy Russian targets — such as armored units and air defenses — which are attacking NATO troops.
POLITICO was among several outlets given access to the event in London earlier this week.
Lieutenant General Mike Elviss, commander of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC), said that the scenario was “very deliberately set in 2030 because that is where we see the threat from Russia to be at its most acute,” and that is “when we could realistically deliver” the technology and readiness required to “meet that threat.”
He stressed that the U.K.’s military needs “the right investment now” and “must continue to invest in the digital backbone and the partnerships that sustain” units like ARRC.
“There is huge opportunity here, but peril if we ignore the risk,” he added.
AI-driven warfare
The ARRCADE STRIKE exercise included hundreds of personnel from Britain, France, Italy and the U.S. to test the ability to plan a potential future operation involving up to 100,000 people, as well as the use of AI-driven targeting and planning for electromagnetic and drone warfare.
AI-driven tools such as ASGARD — made in collaboration with private sector companies including American tech giant Palantir — will be used in order to speed up decision-making on the battlefield. These tools allow for weapons to be automatically assigned to targets to make sure expensive ammunition isn't wasted on enemy drones, and to counter Russia’s own adoption of AI in warfare.
General Alexus Grynkewich, supreme allied commander Europe, described ARRC as “essential for our NATO plans” and that it will draw upon “the lessons learned from Ukraine and Operation Epic Fury.”
“Failure to learn, adapt, and apply the lessons we observe on the modern battlefield, and failure to do this faster than our adversaries puts both our deterrence posture and our defense plans at risk,” he added.
The preparation comes as part of NATO and the EU’s attempts to ramp up defense spending and war readiness by 2030 amid the increased threat from Russia.
General Chris Donahue, commander of NATO Land Command, said: “Mission ready by 2030 is not a slogan, it is what we must do.”
