Budget 2027: if the Assembly rejects the revenue on Tuesday, the stablecoin tax jumps

One vote difference, one more vote. The deputies vote Tuesday, November 3 afternoon on the first part of the finance bill for 2027, that of revenue. With it the fate of the only crypto measure adopted during the session is at stake. This is the end of the tax deferment on conversions into stablecoins, narrowly voted on on October 16 and detailed in our update on the stablecoin tax.

Stablecoin tax: 38 votes against 37, and everything will be replayed on Tuesday

Express reminder. Amendment I-3898 by communist MP Nicolas Sansu removes the tax deferral on exchanges of cryptocurrencies against stablecoins compliant with MiCA (the European regulation on crypto-assets). Concretely, converting ether into USDC would therefore become a taxable event from January 1, 2027. The flat tax of 31.4% would apply even without a euro arriving in your bank account.

The text passed 38 votes to 37, with 25 abstentions. On the other hand, the deputies did not retain the other crypto amendments at this stage: extension of the exit tax to crypto assets of more than 800,000 euros, declaration of self-held wallets beyond 100,000 euros. A single measure, therefore, but suspended from Tuesday's vote.

Budget 2027: the 3 scenarios of the solemn vote

First scenario, adoption. The deputies vote on the revenue part with its amendments, including the stablecoin tax. They then have until November 17 to review the spending. Then comes the shuttle with the Senate, which can delete the measure or rewrite it.

Second scenario, rejection. There is nothing theoretical about it: in fact, last year, the Assembly rejected its revenue part by 404 votes to 1. In this case, the deputies do not examine the second part. It is then the government's initial text which goes to the Senate, according to the procedure recalled by the Journal du Net. All the amendments voted by the deputies fall with it. Thus, the stablecoin tax would disappear, unless a senator reintroduces it.

Third scenario, the passage by force. Sébastien Lecornu is betting on a compromise “in December”. In the absence of a final vote, the government however keeps 49.3 in reserve. And if Parliament has not decided by December 18, there remains the route of budgetary ordinances, never used under the Fifth Republic.

A context that does not advocate adoption

First, the Minister of Public Accounts David Amiel estimates that the amendments voted on during the session widen the deficit by 10 billion euros. We are thus moving away from the objective of 5% of GDP in 2027. Then, the deputies examined less than 800 of the more than 3,000 amendments tabled. Finally, they already rejected the revenue part of the Social Security budget on October 23.