Vote postponed, following the next episode. The solemn vote on the revenue part of the 2027 budget was to take place this Tuesday, November 3 afternoon at the National Assembly. It will not take place because the amendments have not been exhausted. There were 758 left to examine as of midnight Monday. The general rapporteur Philippe Juvin has no illusions about the outcome and has been calling for a 49.3 since August. We have already explained what a rejection would do to the stablecoins tax. In the other scenario, the Lecornu government comes into force and chooses itself what survives.
Budget 2027: why this Tuesday's vote skips
LCP announced it during the night, at 12:03 a.m. The revenue marathon is not over, so no formal vote this afternoon. No new date has been set, and the official agenda of the Assembly still showed the vote at 3 p.m. on Tuesday morning.
Same scenario as October 20, when a first postponement had already postponed the deadline to November 3. Sébastien Chenu, who chaired the session on Monday, was counting on an end “Wednesday evening” if the pace continues.
More than 3,000 amendments were tabled and 1,943 had been considered by the morning of November 2. As of October 30, 322 amendments had already been adopted during 415 public votes, often against the advice of the government.
Juvin had warned on October 9, the evening when the finance committee rejected the revenue part by 31 votes to 3. Only the Ensemble pour la République group voted in favor. The rapporteur already quantified the drift in the committee's votes at around 10 billion euros of additional deficit.
On Franceinfo on Sunday November 1, he hit the nail on the head: “There will be a vote which will probably be negative. The budget will be rejected by Parliament. » Then he drew the conclusion by demanding to “go to a 49.3, I’ve been saying that since August”.
49.3: what the Lecornu government would keep or throw away
Article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution allows the Prime Minister to hold his government accountable for a text. This text is then considered adopted without a vote, unless a motion of censure passes. And above all, the government holds the pen. He can reinstate his deleted articles, keep certain amendments voted on and delete others, without justifying himself to the hemicycle.
Hence the fragility of the votes over these three weeks. The tax on conversions into stablecoins, adopted on October 16 by 38 votes to 37, is only due to Bercy's desire to keep it. The gigabyte tax of 5.5 cents, passed 11 votes to 10 thanks to two erroneous rebellious votes, has every chance of disappearing since the government is opposed to it.
In the other direction, the plan on the tax reduction for retirees, deleted on October 15 by 116 votes to 30, could return to the official copy with its 1.4 billion euros in yield. Ditto for the surcharge on large companies (5 billion euros), swept aside on October 27 by 79 votes to 77. The overtime exemption ceiling increased to 15,000 euros and the fuel bonus extended into 2027 would depend on the same arbitration.
Motion of censure and calendar: the political bill of 49.3
A 49.3 opens a period of 24 hours to file a motion of censure. It takes 58 signatures, a tenth of the deputies, then 289 votes to bring down the government. Aurélien Le Coq warned on October 9 that LFI would censor in the event of an appeal. The RN will make the difference. The government is no longer hiding its relief plans. Roland Lescure on RTL, October 21: “On the budget highway, if we go off the road, we will use the slides. »
The calendar dictates the rest. The deputies must decide on the first reading on the entire text before November 17 at midnight, then the Senate and a joint committee take over. According to the count of NosParlementaires, the constitutional deadline of 70 days expires on December 17. After this date, budget orders remain (a procedure never used since 1958).
