Last lap before the verdict. Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3. Kalshi traders give Democrats a 70% chance of winning the House and Senate. The crypto sector, however, bet almost all of its $170 million campaign on the Republicans. And the last three midterm elections coincided with the low point of the Bitcoin cycle. Here is the reading grid for election night.
Midterms 2026: $170 million on the wrong horse?
Fairshake and its affiliates have committed $154 million to their candidates, according to a spokesperson cited by CoinDesk on November 1. The super PAC (political action committee authorized to spend without ceiling, regardless of campaigns) is still keeping 56 million aside for the 2028 cycle. Same maneuver as two years ago.
Two more crates followed. The Winklevoss brothers' Digital Freedom Fund committed more than $8 million in October to block Democrats in Ohio, Texas and Iowa. The Fellowship Fund, financed by Cantor Fitzgerald and close to Tether, had paid 3.8 million to Republicans, including Ken Paxton, before adding $600,000 for three outgoing Democrats. Half went to Ritchie Torres, the most enthusiastic New York elected official in his party on the subject.
“Fairshake has always been and always will be an issue-focused organization,” says its spokesperson Geoff Vetter. “We support pro-crypto candidates in both parties. » The problem is with the Senate numbers. The Republicans hold 53 seats, the Democrats 45 plus two independents, and they need four net gains to swing. The North Carolina seat vacated by Thom Tillis is already almost theirs. There are three left to win, without losing Michigan, among the states classified “tossup” by the Cook Political Report.
The 5 senatorial elections to follow Tuesday evening
The odds below are those recorded on Sunday on Kalshi and Polymarket, the poll averages those of RealClearPolitics. Check again during the day, these markets move quickly.
Ohio: Jon Husted (R, incumbent appointed in 2025) against Sherrod Brown (D). Brown at 71% on Kalshi as on Polymarket, 47.9% against 45.3% in the polls. This is the most expensive election in the history of the sector: around $55 million spent by crypto PACs to make it lose.
Texas: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D). Talarico given 71-72%, polls 48.8% to 47%. Paxton received money from the Fellowship Fund.
Michigan: Democratic seat to defend, Abdul El-Sayed (D) against Mike Rogers (R). El-Sayed at 73-74%, 49.1% against 45.6% in the polls. No big crypto checks spotted.
Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D). The only tossup where the Republican leads, at 55%, with 46% against 45.5% in the polls. The Digital Freedom Fund put up $418,000 for Hinson.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R, incumbent) against Mary Peltola (D). Peltola at 69-71%, polls close at 49.4% to 48.2%.
Susan Collins' Kansas and Maine complete the list of Republican seats under threat. Three swings in addition to North Carolina, Michigan retained, and the Senate changed hands.
Midterms: why Ohio weighs more than the others
Sherrod Brown chaired the Senate Banking Committee before his defeat in 2024, a campaign where Fairshake had already spent around forty million. It was from this perch that he blocked all market structure laws. His return would give him a seat on this committee at a time when the Clarity Act, passed by the House in July 2025, is still awaiting the Senate.
Predictive markets are not infallible. Polls measure intent, odds measure where bettors' money is going, and both point in the same direction this time. The industry bet against the trend. Kalshi had a roughly 70% chance of an all-Democratic Congress on Sunday evening.
