Will the U.S. and Russia pave the way for a long-awaited security agreement? “Planned as part of the Ukraine war agreement”
Proposed at the Abu Dhabi tripartite talks, scheduled to visit Moscow and Dublin on the 12th
Quick Look
- Axios reported that the Trump administration has asked Russia to submit a draft of a new EU-Russia security agreement.
- The proposal came out of the Abu Dhabi tripartite talks, and Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner are scheduled to visit Moscow and Dublin on the 12th to meet President Putin and President Zelenskyy.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Russia has for years sought a security agreement that would limit NATO's eastward expansion and scale back its military presence in Eastern Europe. The United States and Europe have rejected these demands, but the Trump administration is showing an open attitude as part of a comprehensive agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
U.S. Internet media Axios reported on the 11th (local time) that the U.S. Donald Trump administration requested Russia to submit a new proposal for a future "Security Agreement" between Russia and Europe as part of an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
According to reports, a security agreement with Europe is something Russia has been pursuing for several years. It is a plan to limit the eastern expansion of the Western military alliance North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) toward Russia and reduce military deployment in Eastern Europe.
The United States has rejected Russia's demands. Europe has also been wary of Russia's goals as they could shake up Europe's security system, which was solidified around NATO after the war.
However, Axios' analysis is that the Trump administration is showing an open attitude toward this as part of a comprehensive agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
The Trump administration's proposal came out of the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral meeting held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on the 10th and 11th.
The meeting was attended by special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's eldest son-in-law Jared Kushner as U.S. representatives, and Axios reported that the U.S. proposal to reach an agreement on a new European-Russian security system as part of the previous agreement was a key focus of the tripartite talks in Abu Dhabi.
According to two sources familiar with the talks, Russian negotiators said they carried out the invasion because Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a letter to then-U.S. President Joe Biden expressing Russia's security concerns in 2021, a year before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but President Biden did not respond.
Accordingly, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner proposed drawing up a new proposal to the Russian side. The call was to draft a new 'security agreement' that would include Russia's security concerns and demands, while reducing tensions and ensuring that it would not attack Europe in the future.
They also called on Russia to allow European representatives to participate in future Ukraine peace talks.
“We told the Russians that they have their hopes and fears, but they also have to offer a variety of de-escalation measures and other proposals if they want Europe to take the offer positively,” Kushner said at a press conference.
Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner plan to travel to Moscow, Russia, on the 12th and deliver this request again to President Putin.
After completing their Russian itinerary, they plan to move to Dublin, Ireland, on the same night and meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In Dublin, high-level European events will be held, including the European Political Community (EPC) summit on the 12th and the unofficial European Union (EU) summit on the 13th.
Axios analyzed that the United States wants Europe to participate in the negotiation process to end the war in Ukraine and discuss a new European-Russian security agreement at the same time.
This is expected to be a key issue at the Dublin event, but European diplomats say there is strong opposition to this plan from the United States.
There appears to be strong suspicion in Europe about the possibility that President Trump will push the previous agreement in favor of Russia or shake up the European security system centered around NATO.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on the 9th, "Meaningful discussions on the European security structure can only take place after the ceasefire in Ukraine," and added, "(European security discussions) must take place in an appropriate forum, especially with NATO allies and EU member states."
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner will again ask President Putin to draft a new security agreement in Moscow on the 12th.
Very likely · Within days
Special Envoy Wittkoff and Kushner will meet President Zelenskyy in Dublin, Ireland on the same night
Very likely · Within days
The US security agreement plan will be a key issue at the European Political Community (EPC) summit and informal EU summit in Dublin.
Likely · Within days
Open Questions
- Whether Russia will submit a draft new security agreement
- How European countries will respond to the US proposal
- Concrete results of the meeting between President Putin and President Zhensky
- Official position of NATO and EU member states







