A few months away from graduating with a master's degree, Jin Sangyu, an urban planning major, is watching AI disrupt the industry she is trying to enter.
Job boards are flooded with positions requiring AI expertise, while job postings for traditional roles appear to be dwindling. The extensive work in the early stages of a design project that once required several people can now be accomplished with a few mouse clicks.
Ms. Jin, 26, is from northern China. After graduating from the University of Hong Kong, she has applied for about 150 internships and entry-level positions in Hong Kong and the mainland, but all of them have come to nothing. She spent $400 on a professional course in artificial intelligence, hoping to stand out in the job market, but it didn't seem to work. She thought to herself, this is not surprising: if even experienced practitioners have their jobs taken away by artificial intelligence, what opportunities will there be for newcomers who just want to join the industry?
“My feeling is that we, recent graduates, are exactly the kind of people that AI is going to replace,” she said. "I really don't know how to start because I don't see hope," she said of planning for the future.
It is estimated that 12.7 million recent graduates will join China's labor force this year, the largest number in a growing group of graduates in years. They are facing two interrelated and difficult to solve challenges. Like previous graduates, they are entering a saturated job market, competing for dwindling entry-level positions in a weak economy. But they also face a new obstacle: the additional uncertainty created by artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape the industry landscape and change the priorities of recruiters.
This is a global problem. College graduates around the world are grappling with the prospect of entry-level jobs disappearing outright. But in China, the concerns are particularly pressing. Driven by government support and widespread public enthusiasm, China is introducing artificial intelligence at an unprecedented pace, even as youth unemployment remains high.
In July this year, the unemployment rate among urban residents aged 16 to 24 was 17.9%. The supply of high-quality, well-paid graduate jobs has failed to keep pace with surging university enrollments.
“AI is coming at a particularly difficult time, even though it is not the cause of the underlying problem,” said Christian Yao, a senior lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, who has been studying how young Chinese find their way in the job market.
Unemployment and dissatisfaction
For China's leaders, who have long derived a large part of their political authority from their commitment to prosperity, high youth unemployment can be a source of political unrest.
Scott Singer, a fellow and co-director of the China Artificial Intelligence Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said any negative impact AI might have on youth unemployment, no matter how small, would be extremely sensitive to the ruling party. More broadly, “China is extremely concerned about the impact of AI on the labor market. That’s probably their biggest concern right now with AI.”
Wary of the possible human and political consequences of the AI revolution, Beijing is pressuring companies to avoid layoffs. Through several court rulings, the government has shown its reluctance to accept AI cost savings as justification for job cuts.
In January this year, the government announced "targeted employment support for key industries," and some party officials have proposed more comprehensive intervention measures, such as encouraging employers to provide vocational training to help workers adapt to a job market centered on artificial intelligence.
Experts say the impact of artificial intelligence and automation has so far been felt most strongly in manufacturing and food delivery, China's two largest employment categories. The impact on white-collar jobs is only beginning to be felt.
In interviews, young job seekers described struggling to find their footing in a rapidly changing employment landscape driven by artificial intelligence. They spoke of anxiety, uncertainty, and despair when job search delays drag on. Their only consolation is that everyone seems to be struggling together.
"My spirit has been drained," said Zhou Jinnia, a graduate with a master's degree in radio and television.
Ms. Zhou submitted more than 2,800 job applications in the past year. She said this has resulted in less than 20 interviews and zero offers so far. She used to sift through job postings and apply only for positions that suited her skills—now she applies to everything. Now even if she gets an interview, she no longer has any hope.
Ms. Zhou said she has noticed an increasing number of job openings for producing AI-generated series and shows. She said that the knowledge she learned in college did little to help her adapt to the changes in the job market brought about by artificial intelligence. And, at least in Hangzhou, where she is applying, employers seem to be only interested in candidates with extensive experience.
“There are so many applicants and they want someone who can hit the ground running,” she said. "They have no interest in training you."
Involution of academic qualifications
Professor Yao from the University of Victoria said that although artificial intelligence has indeed created some job opportunities, they are mainly concentrated among a small group of job seekers who have mastered the technology. At the same time, entry-level white-collar jobs such as administration, research, basic analysis, and programming are more likely to be replaced by automation.
"China is particularly vulnerable because its market for junior professionals is already highly competitive," he added. A qualifications arms race is emerging, he said, "and we're now seeing relatively entry-level positions requiring master's and even doctorate degrees."
For some recent graduates, even a high degree is no longer enough. Wang Luna, a graduate with a master's degree in management, applied for nearly 200 positions in areas such as project management, product management and procurement planning in Hong Kong and mainland China, but with little success.
However, Ms. Wang, 25, is relatively optimistic about the impact of artificial intelligence on her career prospects. She said she doesn't think the technology will have a major impact on her because the roles she's applying for are not easily automated because they require negotiation and face-to-face interaction.
