Predicted exchange rates by the end of the year

Until the end of 2026, the ruble will gradually weaken. Exchange rates were predicted by Vladislav Skripko, candidate of economic sciences, and he is quoted by Bankiros.

According to him, the main factors for the Russian currency remain exports and imports; prices for basic goods supplied abroad; volume of foreign exchange earnings; business demand for currency. The monetary policy (MCP) of the Central Bank also affects the strength of the ruble - a high key rate supports the ruble through the attractiveness of ruble savings and at the same time restrains lending, domestic demand and imports. Finally, budget expenditures and currency transactions within the framework of the budget rule also affect the exchange rate.

Serious risks for the ruble before the end of the year could be a sharp change in the sanctions regime and payment channels; jump in oil prices; violations of export logistics; unexpected change in the geopolitical situation or economic policy parameters.

Until the end of the year, the ruble faces a moderate risk of weakening. Now the currency is supported by a positive trade balance and a still high interest rate. In the opposite direction, import growth, fiscal impulse, possible further rate cuts and external restrictions may work. In the absence of a strong external shock, the base range at the end of October assumes: 83-89 rubles per US dollar; 95-103 rubles per euro; 12.3-13.4 rubles per Chinese yuan.

“At the same time, the movement is unlikely to be linear: on the horizon of several months it is more important to talk about ranges, and not about the exact rate for a specific date,” Skripko clarified.