Former high-ranking foreign and security officials cast doubt on the possibility of North Korea-US dialogue following the U.S. midterm elections.
At a roundtable held by the NEAR Foundation on the 6th at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Seoul on the topic of changes in U.S. foreign policy and Korea-U.S. relations after the U.S. midterm elections, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Song Min-soon said, "I don't think the possibility of U.S.-North Korea dialogue is high."
Former Minister Song estimated that U.S. President Donald Trump attacked Iran for nuclear weapons, but would not leave a legacy of visiting and meeting North Korea.
He said that "the conditions of easing sanctions against North Korea and stopping North Korea's nuclear development" could become a framework for negotiations, and that in this case, North Korea's long-range nuclear capabilities would be limited and short-range nuclear forces targeting South Korea and Japan could be maintained.
At this time, former Minister Song expressed concern that South Korea would face a “triple hardship of being under threat from North Korea’s nuclear weapons, the United States neglecting its alliance in some cases, and in the meantime being caught in the U.S.-China competition.”
Former Ambassador to the United States Cho Hyun-dong predicted, "If I were in Kim Jong-un's position, considering the humiliation he suffered by taking the train to Hanoi, I would never look outside and call President Trump to Pyongyang."
He went on to say that North Korea's goal would be "recognition as a de facto nuclear state and relief of sanctions," and that "it would be difficult for President Trump to go to Pyongyang under those conditions," and that the chances of success were low.
There was a prediction that Korea-US relations would not get any easier.
Former Ambassador Cho said, “We have been dealing with a single power, the Trump administration and the Republican-dominated Congress, but now we have to deal with two powers,” and added, “In terms of diplomacy, there are more challenges than opportunities.”
He said that in the case of security consultations that are not going smoothly even now, “if congressional checks become stronger, implementation becomes more difficult and is likely to be prolonged.”
Experts predicted that the transfer of wartime operational control would also likely remain a difficult task.
Choi Byeong-hyuk, former deputy commander of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, said that from his experience meeting officials in Washington DC, there is an atmosphere in which the issue of wartime operational control is considered a key issue in the strategic competition between the US and China. “It will not be easy to hand over the steering wheel to the Korean military, which does not have nuclear operational capabilities.”
In particular, he said he heard that the U.S. military authorities had raised the staffing ratio of U.S. forces in Korea from 60% to 80-90% while restricting assignments in other regions, and analyzed, "They are continuously reinforcing the U.S. Forces in Korea in terms of readiness."
This can be interpreted to mean that the United States is strengthening the role of the U.S. military in Korea within its grand strategy of keeping China in check, and accordingly will not easily give up wartime operational control.
Former Minister Song pointed out that wartime operational control "must be reviewed from a military perspective, but we cannot continue to say that we will 'take back' operational control in a political way as if the United States had taken it away."
He argued, "The perspective should be to change the driver's seat and the passenger seat while the ROK-US alliance is maintained. If the US military pretends to get off a bus, the switch is impossible."
It has also been diagnosed that even if President Trump's unilateralism declines, many of Trump's policies, such as America First, economic nationalism, keeping China in check, and sharing the burden of alliances, will be maintained.
Kim Byeong-yeon, a professor of economics at Seoul National University, said, “During the Biden administration, we attracted investment in the United States by giving incentives, but now we attract it by receiving money through tariffs.” He added, “It is the best card for the United States, so why stop it?”
Lee Jae-min, a professor at Seoul National University Law School, also said, “Dissatisfaction with multilateralism, obsession with keeping China in check, and pressure on alliances have been consistent trends in the United States for more than 10 years,” and added, “This trend will not change.”
Former Minister Song referred to this as “Trumpism without Trump,” and said, “Americans agreed on the goal or goal of coercing other countries. It’s just that (Trump’s) methods and results were not good.”
