Raymond Greene, Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), delivered a special speech at the "2026 Taipei Security Dialogue" today (9th), emphasizing that Taiwan has three areas where it can use its unique asymmetric advantages to deter conflicts, namely unmanned systems, mission-based command and social resilience, and also talked about two necessary promoters, namely investment and the use of reserve combat capabilities.
Gu Liyan described that for today's conflicts, unmanned systems are like machine guns in World War I and tanks in World War II. They are technologies that redefine the battlefield and change the rules of the game. He gave an example. Without a formal navy, Ukraine successfully paralyzed the powerful Russian Black Sea Fleet and prevented the Russian army's planned amphibious capture of Odessa. It also recently successfully broke through the world's most advanced air defense system and struck strategic targets deep in Russia. Under the flames of war, Ukraine established a world-class defense technology industry almost from scratch, but the technological foundation it had at the time was even far less than Taiwan's current scale.
He said that Taiwan started with a particularly solid foundation, with advanced manufacturing, deep semiconductor expertise, and access to advanced, combat-tested U.S. autonomous systems such as Anduril's Altius and Shield AI's V-BAT. Just as importantly, top U.S. drone companies are establishing deep production, R&D and supply chain partnerships with businesses large and small in Taiwan. As a result, Taiwan’s drone exports are surging and manufacturers are successfully entering demanding international markets.
Gu Liyan said that the United States and Taiwan are also continuing to push the boundaries of the field of unmanned vehicles through growing cooperation on maritime unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), and AI-enabled swarm technologies. These platforms are expected to significantly enhance Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities in the next few years.
However, he also reminded that no single innovation will be a panacea. The real winning formula is "integration." This is a "system of systems" that integrates traditional and unmanned systems and combines them with survivable multi-domain C4ISR (command, control, communications, information, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems so that they can operate in complex kinetic and electromagnetic threat environments, as is the case in Ukraine. He pointed out that as can be seen in ongoing conflicts, the transparent and fast-paced modern battlefield not only poses challenges to technology and equipment, but also poses a test to operators.
In terms of mission command, Gu Liyan pointed out that one of Ukraine's early and lasting advantages was the ability to exercise "mission command (mission-based command)" to decentralize combat decision-making to the tactical level; soldiers who were authorized to make decisions at the front-line engagement points have repeatedly outsmarted the Russian army, which is still subject to a rigid top-down hierarchical system. He analyzed that the reason why Ukraine was so successful in mission command and Russia failed is that Ukraine and democratic countries like Taiwan share an asymmetric advantage. "They do not worry about the loyalty of their own troops."
He emphasized that this kind of trust is not just emotional, it plays a decisive role in combat; in a high-intensity, communication-blocked environment, the party that can take action without waiting for high-level permission will enjoy a clear advantage, and this rigidity cannot be easily corrected. He also affirmed that the latest Han Kuang exercise proved that Taiwan is quickly adapting to the concept of mission command to ensure operational flexibility.
Regarding social resilience, Gu Liyan said that revisionist powers like to view open societies as weaknesses that can be exploited. Whether they use media or election manipulation to provoke confrontation and weaken support for defense investment, or directly attack civilians and economic infrastructure during conflicts, the urgent need for democratic countries to improve social resilience is increasingly obvious.
He said that Taiwan's public and private sectors did not wait for the crisis to break out. He has observed multiple urban resilience exercises in the past two years and has always been impressed by the progress made in strengthening coordination between central and local authorities, as well as between civil institutions and Taiwan's national military. Equally important is the role played by Taiwan's vibrant civil sector, which draws on the island's strong tradition of volunteer service and community support.
Gu Liyan pointed out that Taiwan has also systematically addressed its economic vulnerabilities, especially in key areas such as energy. While much attention has been paid internationally to Taiwan's efforts to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation and storage, many have overlooked the tremendous progress Taiwan has made in improving its overall energy resilience; whether it is formulating rationing plans, decentralizing the power grid, developing coal and renewable resources, or looking at emerging or reactivated energy sources such as nuclear and geothermal, Taiwan is in a much better position today than it was just a few years ago. He also believes that Taiwan's ability to manage the impact of the Middle East conflict on its energy supply and key imported supplies such as helium is a testament to its resilience efforts.
In terms of information warfare, Gu Liyan pointed out that Taiwan faces overwhelming propaganda campaigns by its adversaries every day, aiming to provoke confrontation and undermine confidence in democratic institutions and Taiwan's partnerships, including Taiwan-US relations. He said that although Taiwan has always been an international model in combating such media manipulation, it must still be prepared for a new wave of more complex offensives combined with advances in AI technology before the upcoming elections; AI-enabled cyber threats are also likely to pose major challenges to important areas such as banks and critical infrastructure, which requires urgent action.
