Nine departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Intelligent Networked New Energy Vehicle Industry" today (11th). The plan mentions that "the average electric energy consumption of pure electric passenger vehicles will reach about 11.5 kilowatt hours per 100 kilometers", "highly autonomous driving will be achieved on highways, urban expressways, some urban roads and other scenes", and the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market will account for 70%... It can be said that the goals are quite clear.
So, what is the concept of energy consumption of 11.5 kWh per 100 kilometers? What does it mean for car companies and consumers? What exactly does “highly automated driving” on highways and other scenarios mean? By 2030, when domestic new energy vehicles account for 70% of total new car sales, what changes will it mean for us ordinary people’s car purchasing, travel and other related scenarios?
What does the power consumption of 11.5 degrees per 100 kilometers mean?
“The average electric energy consumption of pure electric passenger vehicles reaches about 11.5 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers.” This figure has attracted widespread attention. What level does this power consumption belong to? According to experts, in the current field of new energy passenger vehicles, the power consumption of micro scooters is about 8-10 degrees per 100 kilometers, the power consumption of compact family cars is about 11.5-13.5 degrees per 100 kilometers, and the power consumption of medium and large SUVs and medium and large cars is 14-17 degrees per 100 kilometers. This is a common power consumption level in the field of new energy passenger vehicles. So, what does it mean for car companies and consumers to achieve a power consumption of about 11.5 degrees per 100 kilometers by 2030? Li Hongchang, a researcher at the Sustainable Transportation Innovation Center, a national high-end think tank and a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, gave an interpretation.
Li Hongchang: The average electric energy consumption of pure electric passenger cars reaches about 11.5 kilowatt hours per 100 kilometers, which has a big difference for new energy vehicle companies and ordinary people who use cars.
For new energy vehicle companies, this means a lot of room for technological improvement and further intensification of competition. Higher requirements have been put forward for technology, vehicle design, overall consumption level, etc.
For ordinary people, this means that the mileage per kilowatt hour is increasing. In a general scenario, assuming that electricity is 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour, it only costs 6 cents per kilometer, and the total electricity bill is less than 600 yuan per 10,000 kilometers traveled. At public fast charging stations, based on the calculation of 1.2 yuan per kilowatt hour, the cost per kilometer is only 0.14 yuan. For ordinary people, mileage anxiety can be continuously reduced and optimized. From the perspective of urban commuting, the cruising range is stable at more than 500 kilometers, and charging once a week is enough. Cruising at 110 kilometers per hour on the highway, the cruising range can be maintained at about 450 kilometers. In this way, there will be no power shortage or rush to grab charging piles between the two service areas.
For the country, this is also a leap in energy efficiency and an important supporting force to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
What will it look like to achieve "highly automated driving" on highways?
The plan announced this time also mentioned that by 2030, “cars with autonomous driving functions will be applied on a large scale.” "Achieve highly automated driving on highways, urban expressways, some urban roads and other scenes." Here, what kind of state does "highly automated driving" specifically refer to?
Li Hongchang: Highly automated driving has clear classification and grading standards. According to my country's national standards for automobile driving automation classification released in 2021, highly automated driving refers to L4 level autonomous driving. In other words, it is not yet L5 fully autonomous driving, but it is already L4 autonomous driving - in certain scenarios, the driver does not need to take over the entire process; when the system encounters a fault, it can also automatically perform risk-reducing operations such as pulling over and parking, completely free of human driving intervention. On most highways, urban expressways and specific urban roads, vehicles can autonomously follow other vehicles, change lanes, avoid obstacles, and enter and exit ramps, completing the entire process with automated operations.
37 kinds of "roughest" roads were moved into the intelligent network test site
For highly autonomous driving technology to truly come to fruition, technological leadership and safety and reliability are indispensable. Not long ago, the Southern Test Site, China’s first “road and air integrated” intelligent network comprehensive national-level testing base, was put into operation in Shaoguan, Guangdong. Here, intelligent connected cars will be tested on 37 "roughest" roads.
Headquarters reporter Wu Meimiao: In the comprehensive road condition durability test area of the Southern Proving Ground, more than 30 intelligent connected vehicles conducted the same test - "road pressure". The roads here are quite special, including twisted roads, pothole roads, bumpy roads, etc., a total of 37 types of special road sections.
Our daily driving does not only drive on flat roads, but also on dirt roads, construction roads, speed bumps and other situations. Therefore, all the "bad roads" and even extreme road conditions that may be encountered in daily driving are "moved" into the testing ground. Some test the chassis vibration filter, some test the stability of the electronic system, and some check the status of wading and soaking in water, etc. These "enhanced versions" of road surfaces can condense the daily wear and tear of driving for more than ten years and hundreds of thousands of kilometers into tens of thousands of kilometers of test mileage for verification. Running 30,000 kilometers on the field is equivalent to the wear and tear of 160,000 kilometers of social roads. This makes it easier for car dealers to find and solve problems, and the cars delivered to consumers can be more secure.
What changes does it mean that new energy vehicles account for 70% of sales?
According to the goals set out in the plan, by 2030, the proportion of new energy passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market will reach 70%. What is this concept? The latest automobile production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in August, monthly new car sales of new energy vehicles in my country accounted for 60% of total sales, a proportion that reached a new high. You know, in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021~2035)" released in 2020, the goal set at that time was that by 2025, my country's new energy vehicle sales will account for about 20%. The previous target was 20%, the current level is 60%, and the target in five years is 70%. What changes does this increase in proportion mean for the public’s car purchasing, travel and other related scenarios?
Li Hongchang: New energy vehicles account for 70% of new car sales, which has a profound impact on public car purchasing and travel.
First of all, in terms of product selection, from the market structure of purchasing vehicles, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, while fuel vehicles will become a niche choice. Car companies will focus their R&D and production capacity mainly on new energy vehicles, with relatively fewer fuel vehicles. New energy vehicles are highly competitive in terms of cost performance, technical stability, especially daily operation and maintenance costs and energy consumption costs.
From the perspective of daily travel car scenarios, this means that the social energy consumption system will undergo great changes. The layout of charging piles in different areas will be further improved on highways, counties, and towns. High-voltage fast charging will continue to become more popular, and the speed of energy replenishment will continue to increase. With the optimization of battery technology and charging facilities, people have become more aware of the convenience and cost economy of new energy vehicles.
For urban transportation, commuting costs will also be greatly improved and increased.
