
AI-generated summary
This escalation comes in light of ongoing tensions between Lebanon and Israel, after the seizure of an explosive shipment in the Dahr al-Baydar area and Hezbollah’s objection to the recent security and judicial measures. As-Suwayda in Syria is witnessing frequent tensions due to outlaw groups affiliated with Sheikh Al-Aql Hikmat Al-Hijri preventing commercial trucks and students from entering the governorate.
Fears are increasing in Lebanon of an internal escalation in light of the field movements of Hezbollah supporters in Beirut and the suburbs, in parallel with its escalatory political stances, especially its objection to recent security and judicial measures, including the seizure of a shipment of explosives.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that stability cannot be achieved except by extending state authority over the entire Lebanese territory, and restricting the decision of war and peace to its constitutional institutions. Salam praised the strengthening of the deployment of security forces in Beirut, stressing the continuation of legal procedures and investigations related to the shipment of explosives seized in the Dahr al-Baydar area.
On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doubted the Lebanese government's ability to disarm Hezbollah, stressing that Israel would keep its forces in what he described as the security zone in southern Lebanon.
The Syrian News Channel website said that “outlaw groups in Suwayda” prevented, on Sunday, a joint UN humanitarian delegation from entering the city under the pretext of “lack of coordination with them.”
The delegation included the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, accompanied by international organizations. Coordination was made with the Syrian Red Crescent team, Suwayda Branch, to accompany them on field visits in the city of Al-Sobdaa, Shahba, and the village of Arra.
The groups stopped the UN delegation for a period of between two and three hours at the Umm al-Zaytoun checkpoint before informing it of the entry ban, after the delegation crossed the “Al-Matouna” checkpoint of the Suwayda Security Directorate.
It is noteworthy that on September 10, outlaw groups affiliated with Sheikh Al-Aql Hikmat Al-Hijri prevented the entry of commercial trucks loaded with basic materials and fuel into Suwayda Governorate, according to what Al-Ekhbariya’s correspondent reported at the time. Preventing commercial convoys from entering the city coincided with outlaw groups in As-Suwayda preventing about 12,000 students from going to examination centers to take exceptional exams for As-Suwayda students.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his lack of confidence in the Lebanese government's ability to disarm Hezbollah, stressing that Israel will continue to remain in what he described as the security zone in southern Lebanon.
This came in conjunction with the Israeli army raising its level of readiness on the northern border with Lebanon, and strengthening its forces in anticipation of the possibility of a new escalation. This scene coincides with the continuation of Israeli attacks on villages in the south, at a time when Israeli estimates speak of the possibility of Hezbollah launching an attack against Israeli forces, amid anticipation of the course of developments on the ground.
“Israel will remain in the security zone”
In a radio interview with the Israeli “North Radio”, Netanyahu said, in response to a question about the extent of his confidence in the Lebanese government: “No, I do not trust that they will disarm (Hezbollah),” stressing that Israel will remain in the security zone as long as the party is not disarmed. He considered that the Israeli military presence aims to prevent the party from rebuilding its military capabilities and threatening the northern towns. Pointing out that the Israeli army established a security zone that it described as free of terrorist systems, and that a number of villages that were - according to him - strongholds for the party, are no longer so.
Netanyahu stressed that the Israeli army will continue to carry out its operations against Hezbollah whenever necessary, considering that the party has become weaker than it was before, but he pointed to the continued security challenges, especially with regard to the drones that the party uses.
Raising the level of preparedness
In parallel with these statements, the Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that the army had raised the alert level on the northern front. The 36th and 91st Divisions are deployed in the Golan Heights and southern Lebanon, with the forces reinforced with additional units, including battalions from the Golani Brigade and training units.
The newspaper quoted Lebanese sources as saying that Hezbollah is expanding its military preparations, including recruiting members and preparing defensive systems in various areas of the Bekaa, along the coast, and in the southern suburbs of Beirut. It also reported Israeli estimates about the possibility of the party initiating an attack that might target a military site or an Israeli patrol, up to an attempt to kidnap soldiers.
These estimates linked the potential escalation to the Iranian role, while an Israeli military source spoke of the necessity of keeping the forces on alert for a long period.
Continue Israeli attacks
On the ground, Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon continued. The artillery shelling targeted the town of Al-Mansouri and the outskirts of the town of Zabqin in the Tyre district, and heavy shells also targeted the center of Al-Mansouri and the outskirts of the towns of Baraashit, Hadada, and Haris. A huge explosion was heard in the town of Qantara in the district of Marjayoun, while Israeli forces carried out a violent bombing operation in the town of Khiam at night, and blew up Al-Mabarat School in the town at midnight.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Israel will continue to maintain its military presence in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed
Very likely · Within months
Hezbollah will continue to expand its military preparations in the Bekaa, the coast, and the southern suburbs of Beirut
Likely · Within weeks
Israeli attacks on villages in southern Lebanon will continue as the alert level on the northern front is raised
Very likely · Within days

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