Chiefs vs. Broncos 2026 NFL Season Opener Preview: SportsLine Model Favors Under 43.5 Points
Quick Look
- The Kansas City Chiefs aim to rebound from a 6-11 season in 2025 as they open the 2026 NFL season against the 14-3 Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium.
- SportsLine's projection model, after 10,000 simulations, favors the Under on the 43.5-point total, projecting 39 combined points, citing strong defenses from both teams and low offensive projections for Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Kansas City Chiefs had won the AFC West for nine consecutive seasons and reached the Super Bowl in five of six seasons prior to 2025, when they slumped to a 6-11 record. The Denver Broncos finished 14-3 in 2025, won the AFC West for the first time since 2015, and lost 10-7 to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
The Kansas City Chiefs look to rebound from a rare non-playoff year when they kick off the 2026 season against the defending AFC West champion Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. After winning the AFC West for nine consecutive seasons and reaching the Super Bowl in five of six seasons, Kansas City slumped to 6-11 in 2025. Denver, meanwhile, was 14-3 last season and earned its first division title since 2015. The Broncos reached the AFC Championship Game where they dropped a 10-7 decision to the New England Patriots. New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $25 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS:
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds have Kansas City as 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions from SportsLine's projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Broncos vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Broncos:
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Top Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Chiefs vs. Broncos, the model is going Under 43.5 combined points at betting apps. The Broncos had one of the best defenses in the league last year, holding opponents to just 18.3 points per game, third-least in the NFL. Kansas City was also solid, allowing 19.3 points, which was No. 6.
Denver quarterback Bo Nix is projected to be held to under 200 yards passing with just one touchdown. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is projected to throw for 180 yards and one score. SportsLine's model projects 40 combined points between the Broncos vs. Chiefs. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Broncos vs. Chiefs picks
For Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football for Week 1, the model is leaning Under the total, projecting 39 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time.See what it is at SportsLine.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The combined points in the Chiefs vs. Broncos game will be under 43.5
Likely · Within hours
Bo Nix will throw for under 200 yards with one touchdown
Likely · Within hours
Patrick Mahomes will throw for 180 yards and one touchdown
Likely · Within hours
Open Questions
- Will the Chiefs' offense rebound under Patrick Mahomes after a down season?
- Can Bo Nix lead the Broncos to repeat as AFC West champions?
- How will the Monday Night Football setting affect team performance?
