Supply shock on bitcoin: 81% of coins immobile for more than six months

Sixteen million three hundred thousand immobile bitcoins. For at least six months, 81% of BTC in circulation have not left their address. Never before seen on the graph that River published using data from blockhorizon.io. There are therefore only around 3.7 million moving coins out of around 20 million bitcoins in circulation.

Are you looking for sellers? They are becoming rare. The oldest part of the market has not moved an inch: 1 in 6 bitcoins has already been dormant for more than ten years. However, the price has recovered almost 50% since its June low.

Bitcoin offer: the floating melts like snow in the sun

On September 23, River dedicated its newsletter to this phenomenon. “For once, there is a real supply shock on bitcoin,” writes this American bitcoin brokerage company. The numbers follow.

Long-term holders have added more than 3 million bitcoins to their positions since 2020. Understand the investors who let their BTC sit for months or even years.

The previous cycle had followed the opposite path. In 2024 and 2025, nearly 4 million BTC immobile for more than three years had changed hands, according to data from Galaxy Research taken up by River. In the first half of 2026, only around 300,000 of these old coins will have moved.

Bitcoin climbs without buyers, the rebound paradox

At the beginning of June, BTC fell below $60,000, the lowest since October 2024 according to CNBC. It then regained almost 50% to its September peak, above $87,000.

Demand is dragging its feet. Volumes on exchanges have fallen by 30% since January. As of September 23, bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds that buy BTC for their clients) had only absorbed around 18,000 BTC since the start of the month. This figure, stopped before the wave of entries at the end of September, remains lower than their monthly average since their launch in 2024.

River draws a straightforward conclusion. “If demand does not support this rally, it is because the increase is driven by supply,” summarizes the company. It describes a simple mechanism where coins pass from the hands of traders to those of long-term holders until no one wants to sell at the current price.

Bitcoin bear market: shortest and shallowest

At the June low, BTC had lost 52% from its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. Today it remains around 34% below that peak. Previous bear markets had wiped out between 77% and 85% of the value of bitcoin. According to River, this bearish cycle is also about a hundred days shorter than the briefest of its predecessors. The company now considers the end of the bear market more likely.

Beware of overly conservative curves. River's chart shows that dormant supply has already stalled at the end of 2017, in 2021 and then in 2024, each time the old ones sold on the rise. Such a thin float amplifies movements in both directions. River also recognizes this: “What is missing is a real increase in demand. »