Keys to forming a Government in Israel after the elections or returning to the polls: consultation of the president, negotiation and voting

After the close legislative elections this Tuesday, the first after the attacks of October 7 and the brutal offensive in Gaza, Israel now faces an arduous process that could last up to around three months to equip itself with a new Executive or return to the polls if neither of the two large blocs manages to gather enough support. With the side that supports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals – led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot – very evenly matched, the result of the negotiations that will open next week is up in the air and everything indicates that it will be in the hands of the two lists of Arab parties, which almost double their parliamentary representation.

These are the steps of the process that will officially begin on Wednesday of next week:

Seven days of consultations. This Friday is the scheduled date for the official count to conclude. However, it will not be until next Wednesday, November 4, when the official results are published. Over the next seven days, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the leaders of the main parties to decide which candidate is most likely to gather enough support to form a government. That candidate does not necessarily have to be the head of the list of the most voted formation.

42 days to form a majority. The candidate designated by Herzog will then have 28 days, extendable for another 14, to try to secure a majority of 61 of the 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament. This Wednesday, with the scrutiny still underway, the bloc favorable to the prime minister wins 56 parliamentary seats, and the Jewish opposition to Netanyahu, 48.

The Arab parties – which have, for the moment, 18 seats – will be fundamental in negotiations that, as is usual in Israel, are expected to be long and arduous. In the brief history of that State, created in 1948, no party has ever obtained an absolute majority at the polls.

The mystery of the Arab parties. These formations, the moderate Islamist Ra'am and the Joint List coalition, which represent Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, have flatly ruled out supporting Netanyahu. However, his most credible support for the rival bloc led by Eisenkot is still up in the air. The former general has ruled out allying with these Arab lists and established conditions for this that are difficult for those parties to comply with. For example, supporting the Jewish character of the State of Israel.

There are options to overcome this obstacle, although they are less attractive than a formal alliance. Israeli law only requires a new government to win a parliamentary vote of confidence by a simple majority, which can be less than 61 votes. If, as it seems at this point in the scrutiny, the retired general's alliance obtains fewer seats in Parliament than the prime minister and his partners, it will require the explicit support of at least some of the parliamentarians on the Arab lists and the abstention or absence in Parliament of the others.

What if the Government is not formed in those first 42 days? If the first candidate fails to form an Executive, the Israeli president can ask the leader of another party to try, something for which he has a new deadline of 28 days. If that second candidate also fails, another period of up to 21 days opens in which a majority of Parliament deputies could propose a third candidate, who would have two more weeks to try to close an Executive.

What if all the negotiations fail? If no bloc is able to gather the support to establish a viable Government, Parliament would have to be dissolved and new elections called within 90 days. Netanyahu's Executive would then continue to govern in office.