Europe has unclogged one of the big elephants in the room: France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland, in addition to the EU, will sit in the negotiation with Russia, Ukraine and the United States; This was decided at the informal summit of the European Council in Dublin. Spain is the only major economy in the bloc that is left out. But this still has one more edge, because the High Representative, Kaja Kallas, who ran to be the sole voice of Europeans, has ended up completely sidelined and will not precisely occupy the role entrusted to her by the Union's own 'Constitution'.
The figure of Kallas, however, is the one claimed in the Treaties. And this constitutional architecture is clear: if we talk about a political negotiation between the EU and Russia on issues such as the war in Ukraine, European security, diplomatic relations or a possible peace agreement, as is the case, the High Representative is the figure to whom article 27.2 TEU expressly attributes the representation of the Union in the field of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The President of the European Council could assume representation at a summit at the highest level, in accordance with Article 15.6, without displacing the powers of the High Representative. That is, either Kallas or Costa.
She positioned herself openly. "As far as European security is concerned, the treaties are very specific: it is António Costa and the High Representative and Vice President who represent Europe on security matters. So, of course, the leaders can choose differently and reopen this debate, which is always difficult, or we should simply stick to the agreements we reached in 2024," summarized the head of European diplomacy herself. She also alleged that Moscow does not want her at the table "because they do not want anyone strong" on the European side. But she has ended up sidelined and now many people wonder what her role is for.
Diplomatic sources consulted by 20minutes explain, without much detail, that the strategy of Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron is to be at the table when the photo is, if it arrives, between Zelensky, Putin and Trump. But the same sources warn: it may be that when that moment is reached neither of the two will be in power. Those who defend the position of Germany and France argue that foreign policy competence lies with the Member States, which is not uncertain... but the Treaties are clear. Another thing is that the person 'nominated' by these Treaties is not liked by the driving force of the Union, as is the case.
For Berlin and Paris, which have controlled the timing of these conversations at all times, the option of a single voice - defended by Giorgia Meloni - was never a possibility. Either the two of them, that is, Merz and Macron - the group called E3 together with the United Kingdom - or include Italy and Poland, which is what has ended up happening. Kallas's name was not on the table, nor was Costa's, nor was that of a third way like the Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, who spoke precisely by phone with Putin a few weeks ago, breaking the European taboo.
E3 becomes E5 with Poland and the Italians, who were already sitting in Abu Dhabi last week. "The leaders have agreed that our European team for the negotiations on peace in Ukraine will be the EU institutions and the 'E5' of the Coalition of the Volunteers," Antonio Costa explained at a press conference. For the next contact the team will still be of a technical nature; a negotiating group, again.
But the objective may be different: the aspiration, in reality, is a table of leaders. With one caveat. Of those five countries, France, Italy and Poland have elections in 2027, and Macron will not remain in power. Donald Tusk could do it, but a change is not ruled out in Warsaw either. If the aspiration of these leaders is to be in a future agreement with Zelensky, Putin and Trump, the reality is that the only one who could confirm the designs is Giorgia Meloni, a favorite to go to the polls next year.
Spain is neither here nor expected. Of the five large EU countries, it is the only one that is left out, but the issue was not even of first order for the Government of Pedro Sánchez; What's more, the president was not in the conclaves in Dublin these days before the electoral campaign and the negotiation with Russia is not an issue that marks the agenda. For example, Spain is part of the first maneuvers of the Coalition of Volunteers that are taking place in Poland until the 22nd to form, if necessary, a series of deployments after the peace agreement is signed. But, nevertheless, the country in this case is still in the second tier... and it does not seem to worry too much in Moncloa.
For the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, she believes that the decision taken is "coherent" and the format shows "strength" of the Europeans in the conversations. Costa, for his part, has insisted that what was agreed is in line with what the Treaties of the European Union dictate since it is the president of the European Council who represents the EU at the level of leaders in matters of security and common foreign and security policy, while the president of the European Commission is the one who "externally" represents the bloc on "community issues."
For many experts there are nuances: the reality is that in a peace negotiation format, the role should be occupied by the High Representative, according to Community Law experts consulted by this means. Furthermore, the same voices allege that this step goes against the premises by which the former Estonian prime minister was chosen as head of European diplomacy in 2024: she was appointed to send a message to Russia and now she is left off the table with Russia.
