Consumption is at a standstill in September, the shopping cart is emptied

With skyrocketing prices, the only way to save is to reduce the quantities, including food, with the shopping cart slowly becoming more and more empty. This is what the Istat data on retail sales for September seem to suggest, basically a snapshot of Italian consumption in the face of inflation that rose above 4% in that month.

Compared to September 2025, sales recorded growth of 1.6% in value, thus also taking into account the increase in prices, but a decrease of 0.1% in volume. A trend that is found in food, a sector in which consumption increased by 1.7% in value and decreased by 0.1% in volume, as well as in non-food (+1.5% and -0.2% respectively). Looking at the monthly comparison, the decline in food sales is even more evident: -0.3% in volume compared to August.

Enough for consumers to cry alarm. The price increases that have hit the food sector, reports Adusbef, "are weighing like a boulder on the pockets of Italians". The sales trend in the first 9 months of the year speaks for itself: "compared to an abnormal increase in value of 1.9% - underlines the association - the volume of food and drink sales decreases by 0.3% compared to the same period in 2025". The UNC speaks of "a country at a standstill", highlighting that "it is certainly not a good sign that upon returning from holidays Italians did not make more purchases than in August, not even to fill empty refrigerators".

And the situation, according to Codacons, "is unfortunately destined to worsen in the last months of the year, considering the surge in inflation and the strong increases that are affecting energy, transport and food prices". In fact, already in October, inflation rose further, from 4.2% in September to 5.4%.

Federdistribuzione, however, is more cautious and recognizes "a weak trend in consumption, penalized by an economic framework that continues to be characterized by a high level of uncertainty". The association looks at the Budget law just introduced in Parliament, confident that it represents "an important opportunity to direct available resources towards measures capable of supporting the purchasing power of families and business investments".

Confcom's opinion is also prudent according to which the stagnation in sales recorded in September "is perfectly in line with the slowdown of the economy in the third quarter". Outside of the index of retail sales, tourism and culture, the Confederation's Research Office notes that sales of cars and 'other services' "indicate that there is, overall, still growth on the household spending side".

But another element is also worrying: the continuous and apparently unstoppable erosion of trade in physical shops, especially small ones. According to Istat, in September e-commerce recorded an increase of 8.5% in value and 7.1% in volume, largely to the detriment of the traditional distribution network. An expansion of online, underlines Confesercenti, which proceeds at a pace significantly higher than that of the market and which accentuates the difficulties of the proximity trade network. While large-scale retail trade essentially maintains its positions, with an increase in volumes of 0.6% in the first nine months of the year, the association highlights, small outlets continue to lose ground: in September they recorded a decline of 1.2% compared to the same month of 2025, which brings the balance of the first nine months to -0.8%. A dynamic defined as "now structural".