Corn heatwave: French harvest expected to fall by 35% in 2026

Heat on the corn. The French harvest is expected to fall by 35% to nine million tonnes in 2026, the lowest since 1980, due to the reduction in dedicated areas and heatwaves, the government confirmed on Friday. The main producers' association (AGPM) estimated at the end of June that grain corn production would be down 30% to 9.5 million tonnes, a level not seen in 26 years.

But the forecast from the statistical service of the Ministry of Agriculture is published after two additional heatwave episodes, occurring at crucial times for corn growth: flowering and filling of ears. The drop in production is not only due to the drop in yields, estimated at 70.3 quintals per hectare (-19% over one year) due to the heatwave and drought, but also to a reduction in cultivated areas for the benefit of others (sunflower, fallow), costs having increased for farmers.

Increase in fertilizer costs

The war in the Middle East notably caused the cost of fertilizers to explode, but corn prices did not follow, production being relatively abundant on a global scale. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the drop in surface areas at 21% in 2026 and affirms that yields had not decreased so much since 2003. Straw cereals, mainly winter crops, were “less affected by extreme heat, but experienced an excess of winter rains”, recalls the ministry, which only marginally revised its harvest estimates published in mid-July, to 46.1 million tonnes, compared to 46.3 million announced in July.

This corresponds to a drop of 5% over one year and the harvests were particularly early, underlines the ministry. The harvest of soft wheat, a bread cereal, amounted to 31.9 million tonnes, down 4.3%, and that of durum wheat to 1.1 million tonnes (-16.6%). According to the estimate made on August 1, French oilseed production in 2026 would be generally stable over one year, at 6.5 million tonnes, the increase in surface areas (+13%) having “compensated for the reduction in yields due to heatwave conditions”. But the ministry warns that this forecast “remains uncertain” because it strongly depends on “the extent of the consequences on yields of the water and heat stress situation suffered by summer crops such as sunflower and soya”.