
The SportsLine projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, predicts the Over on 48.5 total points for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, citing Dallas' 4-0 Over trend and the Bucs' defensive struggles.
AI-generated summary
The Dallas Cowboys improved to 2-2 with a Week 4 win over Houston, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain winless after losing to the Packers without quarterback Baker Mayfield due to a thumb injury. Rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to start in place of Mayfield.
The Week 5 NFL schedule kicks off with a 'Thursday Night Football' matchup between NFC squads as the Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas moved to 2-2 with a victory over Houston in Week 4. The Bucs remain winless after falling to the Packers in Week 4 without quarterback Baker Mayfield (thumb). Mayfield is expected to remain out this week, giving rookie Jalon Daniels a second start. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys have won six of their last seven home meetings with the Bucs and are 13-2 all-time at home versus Tampa. Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Buccaneers odds, after being as high as 10-point favorites, while the over/under is 48.5. The Over is 4-0 for Dallas this season and 2-2 for the Bucs. Before making Cowboys vs. Buccaneers picks or 'Thursday Night Football' predictions, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zoned in on Cowboys vs. Bucs. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bucs vs. Cowboys:
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Top Cowboys vs. Buccaneers predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Bucs vs. Cowboys, the model is going Over 48.5 points at betting apps. Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense and last in yards allowed per play. Tampa Bay's numbers are a bit better, but the Bucs still rank in the bottom half of the league in many key defensive categories. Also, the last matchup between the two saw 50 combined points scored.
Tampa Bay has split its four games Over and Under, but Dalls is 4-0 to the Over, creating a strong trend to lean on. Also, this is just Tampa's second road game, and it allowed a season high of 33 points in its first. The model projects 56 combined points in this matchup as the Over hits 67% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make 'Thursday Night Football' picks
In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Over on 48.5 total points will hit in the Cowboys vs. Buccaneers game.
Likely · Within hours
One side of the point spread will hit well over 50% of the time.
Possible · Within hours

The Dallas Cowboys (2-2) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) in a Thursday Night Football matchup, with Tampa Bay starting rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels due to Baker Mayfield's thumb injury. SportsLine's AI model highlights CeeDee Lamb's over 80.5 receiving yards as a top same-game parlay pick, noting his league-leading receiving stats and recent high-volume performance.

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The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox meet in Game 4 of their ALDS series on Thursday, with Cleveland aiming to avoid a sweep after a 9-3 win in Game 3. SportsLine's predictive model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times, recommends taking the Over 7 combined runs, citing strong historical trends and projected offensive output from both teams.

The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5 Thursday Night Football at AT&T Stadium. Dallas enters at .500 after a win over Houston, while Tampa Bay is 0-4 and will start backup quarterback Jalon Daniels due to Baker Mayfield's thumb injury. Dallas is a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5 points.

The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Thursday Night Football for Week 5 of the NFL, with multiple sportsbooks offering sign-up bonuses totaling over $3,000 through promo codes and deposit matches for new users.

FanDuel offers new users $250 in bonus bets with a promo code for betting $5+ over five days. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Dallas Cowboys in Thursday Night Football, with Dallas favored by 8.5 points and the over/under set at 47.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates NFL games 10,000 times, shows the over hitting in 70% of simulations and Dallas covering in 51%. Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb, replaced by undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels. FanDuel promotes responsible gaming with tools like timeouts and self-exclusion.