The Master crisis that damaged the image of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) throughout 2026 placed the court at the center of the candidates' campaigns, and the internal division between ministers took on the appearance of electoral polarization.
With the moral integrity of its members called into question, the court is monitoring the election scenario for the first time under the concrete fear that impeachment requests against them could prosper from next year onwards.
Four judges interviewed privately by Folha state that, regardless of who wins the presidential dispute —Lula (PT) or Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)—, the Supreme Court will continue to be one of the main sources of tension in national politics.
The reading is that the court will have difficulty leaving the spotlight, especially if there is a strong "anti-STF bench" in the National Congress, which will be possible to map from this Sunday (4).
The year 2027 is considered crucial given the possibility of the Master's investigations advancing even further into court ministers as new messages are uncovered from the cell phones of former banker Daniel Vorcaro.
Still in February, when minister André Mendonça took over as rapporteur for the inquiry, his assistants already admitted that the case would invade the campaign and that the minister could make decisions capable of shuffling the political chessboard on the eve of the election.
This was proven throughout the operations that targeted government and Bolsonaro supporters, but reached its peak when he released a report from the PF (Federal Police) that names minister Alexandre de Moraes as Vorcaro's interlocutor, on September 1st.
The group allied with Moraes —formed by Flávio Dino, Gilmar Mendes and Cristiano Zanin— says that Mendonça acted with a political bias by exposing the messages almost a month before the first round, and with procedures supposedly unrelated to legal procedures.
The dean called the rapporteur an “electoral pixuleco”. The assessment is that, by throwing Moraes, a tormentor of Bolsonarism, into the fire, Mendonça acted to benefit the candidacy of the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who nominated him for the court.
Likewise, Mendonça's wing, composed mainly of Kassio Nunes Marques and Luiz Fux, accuses the opposing group of trying to shield Lula and harm Flávio's campaign.
In the session in which the opening of an investigation against Moraes began to be discussed, on September 15, minister Cármen Lúcia even regretted that, 20 days before the elections, society was focused on procedural issues of the Supreme Court, and not on analyzing the proposals of each candidate.
Outside the court, criticism of the court's actions entered the agenda of candidates, especially those on the right, who began to announce in their campaigns promises to put an end to the STF's alleged excess of power.
The ministers found themselves in the crosshairs of political-electoral disputes, and the president of the STF, Edson Fachin, went public to say that attacks on the Judiciary could not be used as a political agenda.
Minister Dias Toffoli, whose name also appears in the material derived from Vorcaro's cell phone, even said that the vote obtained from attacks on the STF is fraudulent and capable of leading to ineligibility, but this discussion did not advance in the Electoral Court.
When prospecting the possible results of the presidential dispute, ministers assess that the senator's victory would mean a return to an agenda of daily conflicts between the Palácio do Planalto and the STF, as occurred during the Bolsonaro administration.
In the case of Lula's re-election, magistrates from different wings of the court affirm that the relationship will continue to be cordial, but point out that the court will be under pressure to arbitrate new fronts of conflict between the government and Congress.
In last Thursday's (1st) interview with the Flow podcast, Lula defended mandates for Supreme Court ministers and a new nomination model to make the court less political. "The mandate cannot be eternal. I want to create a council to choose the minister. It cannot be the President of the Republic," he said.
The result of the election will also be crucial in defining a new profile of the Supreme Court, since, over the next term, three ministers will retire: Fux in 2028, Cármen in 2029 and Gilmar in 2030.
The number of magistrates that the new president will appoint to the court has also come to be considered an electoral asset. There is another vacancy open since the retirement of Luís Roberto Barroso a year ago and the historic defeat of Jorge Messias.
The eventual election of Flávio Bolsonaro could mean a conservative turn in the balance of forces of the Supreme Court, today formed by a majority of ministers appointed by PT governments. Kassio and Mendonça are the only ones nominated by Bolsonaro.
Another point of attention for ministers is the election of deputies and senators who can take on issues such as mandates for members of the STF, limiting monocratic decisions and proposals that facilitate the processing of requests for impeachment of court ministers.
One of the decisive moments is expected in February, when Congress will begin work under a new composition and will elect the Senate's board of directors, whose president is responsible for whether or not these processes proceed.
With an eye on the future, allies of Moraes fear that, depending on this parliamentary result, the minister will not even assume the presidency of the Supreme Court in September 2027.
Aides to three ministers also assess that a new Lula government would tend to seek political accommodation to avoid friction with the United States and circumvent possible sanctions, while Flávio Bolsonaro is expected to adopt a stance of support for Donald Trump's actions.
The judicialization of political discussions is foreseen by the STF whoever wins, but the court's leadership understands that the public policies foreseen by the former president's son have a greater chance of contradicting the court's jurisprudence, for example, on environmental matters.
