Voters go to the polls this Sunday (4) to choose 54 new senators amid a scenario that projects a rise of the PL, a likely reduction in the benches of centrist parties and traditional politicians at risk in their re-election attempts.
The Senate will be renewed in two thirds, with the election of two senators in each federation unit. Quaest and Datafolha surveys carried out in the last two weeks do not indicate clear favorites in most states, which indicates a chance of twists and turns in the final stretch of the campaign.
The PL, which has ten mid-term senators, must expand its bench significantly. Research shows that at least 11 party names are numerically in first or second place in the Quaest and Datafolha surveys. Another 10 candidates are tied with the leaders within the margin of error and could surprise.
The party seeks a majority capable of approving the amnesty for those arrested on January 8th and carrying forward one of the main banners of the Bolsonarist right: the impeachment of ministers of the STF (Supreme Federal Court).
The offensive against the STF gained new momentum after the disclosure of details of conversations involving minister Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, from Banco Master.
In recent weeks, the right has been making moves to reduce internal divisions within the conservative camp. Former Bolsonaro minister, Ricardo Salles (Novo) gave up his candidacy for the Senate in São Paulo to support André do Prado (PL) and Guilherme Derrite (PP).
The assessment was that a division of right-wing votes between three candidates could give rise to the election of Lula's allies, such as former ministers Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede).
In the Federal District, there was a similar movement: Ronaldo Fonseca (PSD) left the race to support Michelle Bolsonaro and Bia Kicis, both from PL.
On the left, President Lula has shown concern about the division in the allied base in the dispute for seats in the Legislative House. The PT member criticized independent candidacies and predicted an "unprecedented crisis" if he had to serve a term with a minority in the Senate.
The statement was made after booing to Senate candidate Pedro Paulo (PSD) at an event in Rio de Janeiro. He is deputy Benedita da Silva's (PT) running mate for the position, but part of the left signals support for councilor Mônica Benício (PSOL).
The president repeated the criticism in Belém, where the base is divided between Helder Barbalho (MDB), Chicão (União Brasil) and Celso Sabino (PDT) in the dispute for the Senate. During the campaign, the president suggested unification with the withdrawal of one of the candidates.
Leader in the polls for the Senate in Pará, Helder is part of the group of former governors who must renew the Senate. Among them are Renato Casagrande (PSB-ES), João Azevêdo (PSB-PB), Gladson Cameli (PP-AC), Mauro Mendes (União Brasil-MT), Rui Costa (PT-BA) and Reinaldo Azambuja (PL-MS).
Center parties face a challenging scenario, sandwiched in the face of polarization between left and right. The PSD has 10 senators at the end of their term, but only six are running for re-election. Among them are names in difficulty, such as Carlos Fávaro (MT) and Sérgio Petecão (AC).
Names that were considered competitive and considered to run for President, such as Ratinho Júnior (PR) and Eduardo Leite (RS), withdrew from running for the Senate.
The MDB also has 10 senators, 9 of which are at the end of their term. But it appears ahead with a comfortable margin only in Pará, with Helder Barbalho, and in Amazonas, with Eduardo Braga. But there are chances with names aligned with Lula in the Northeast and Bolsonarism in the Center-West.
Some Senate leaders are also threatened with re-election, including some of the longest-serving names in the House.
With four consecutive terms, Renan Calheiros (MDB) is seeking new reelection in Alagoas, but faces stiff competition in the opposition with the former president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP), and Marina Cândia (PSDB), former first lady of Maceió.
In recent weeks, Renan has directed his attacks at Lira and seeks to raise awareness of the female vote, suggesting that voters look for the names of candidates involved in reports of violence against women.
Lira was already investigated for alleged aggression against his ex-wife, but the criminal action was archived by the STF in September 2015.
With two passages through the Senate, Esperidião Amin (PP) has re-election at risk in Santa Catarina in the face of competition from deputy Carol de Toni and former councilor Carlos Bolsonaro, both from PL. To compete with the former president's son, who has no political history in the state, Amin bet on a motto of "root Santa Catarina."
Ciro Nogueira (PP) also faces a difficult scenario in his re-election in Piauí, where he is in opposition to governor Rafael Fonteles (PT). Chastened by investigations that point to his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro, from Banco Master, he runs a campaign anchored in parliamentary amendments.
Among the PT senators, Randolfe Rodrigues (AP), Fabiano Contarato (ES) and Jaques Wagner (BA) also face fierce disputes in their states. The Bahian, who has former minister Rui Costa (PT) as his running mate, is the target of Federal Police investigations related to Master.
The PT currently has 9 senators, 6 of which are at the end of their term, five of which are running for re-election. The acronym is also betting on new names for the Senate such as Paulo Pimenta (RS), Benedita da Silva (RJ) and Marília Campos (MG), in addition to the return of experienced names such as Gleisi Hoffmann (PR).
Alongside allied parties, the PT members seek to build a majority to give Lula greater peace of mind in a possible fourth term for the current president.
Some of the senators elected in 2022 also have their mandates on the line in the wake of Lava Jato's anti-politics.
Surprises in Espírito Santo in 2018, Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val (Avante) face a difficult election against candidates with more structure, such as former governor Renato Casagrande (PSB).
Soraya Thronicke (PSB) lost ground in Mato Grosso do Sul after breaking with Bolsonaro and is trying to be re-elected as Lula's ally. In the same state, Nelsinho Trad (PSD) withdrew from re-election and became a substitute on Reinaldo Azambuja's ticket.
The expectation is for a high renewal in the Senate. Of the 54 senators at the end of their term, 22 did not even run for re-election.
